Q1 economic growth likely below expectations, says association

Macau’s economy may have performed below expectations in the first quarter of 2025, with the Macau Economic Association forecasting real GDP growth to remain flat or increase only slightly, by approximately 0.6% compared to the same period last year.

The city’s money supply (M2) reached a record high in February, surpassing MOP800 billion for the first time – a year-on-year increase of 7.3%.

Share prices of major gaming operators, along with consumer and business confidence indices, remained in the “poor” or “low” range. The average daily gross gaming revenue in February stood at MOP705 million and slipped slightly to MOP634 million in March – up 10.6% and 0.8% year-on-year, respectively.

According to the association, continued global uncertainties – including heightened tensions from ongoing tariff disputes – are contributing to the city’s economic challenges and could limit overall growth for the year to levels comparable to 2024.

The forecast was released alongside the association’s latest Economic Climate Index.

After evaluating both internal and external factors, the association’s research team slightly downgraded Macau’s economic outlook for the second quarter of 2025 – covering April to June – with the Economic Outlook Index now projected at 6.0 to 6.1, still within the “stable” range.

Based on model estimates, the association projects the city’s GDP for the first quarter to fall within the range of MOP98.5 billion to MOP104.5 billion.

This would translate to a year-on-year real growth rate between -2% and 3%, reflecting uncertainty in both the global and regional economic environment.

The association stressed the need for Macau to closely monitor future developments and prepare for potential risks.

Externally, uncertainty looms following the U.S. government’s recent imposition of new tariffs, which analysts say threaten global financial markets and could push the world economy toward recession.