Q2 GDP expected to nearly double y-o-y

Macau’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of this year is expected to rise by 90% year-over-year, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) has noted in a statement.

The MEA studies local economic data and issues the index for the city each month. The rise has been caused mainly by the low base from last year, in which Macau was most affected, out of the last three years, by the Covid-19 pandemic.

During its evaluation, the group made the aforementioned estimate. Moreover, it expects the first quarter’s GDP to rise by at least 30% year-over-year.

Despite such estimated prospects, the group noted the figure will be at most 60% of the average of the years from 2017 to 2019.

Looking into the future, the MEA has high expectations, citing the momentum in developing non-gambling elements in local resorts, which will eventually help strengthen Macau’s attractiveness and competitiveness.

The city’s poor loan figures and ratio slightly fell in February, the group also noted.

On the other hand, the Chinese Consumer Confidence Index has reached an 11-month high, indirectly boosting Macau tourism and casino spending.

Against this backdrop, the city should return to “stability” in terms of the Prosperity Index, with prevalent economic data.

Following the index’s rise by 0.5 index points from January to February, the MEA expects the index to further rise by 0.4 index points to 4.5 in March. The increase is expected to continue to 5.1 in June.

Once crossing the threshold of 5.0, the index will be considered within the “stability” spectrum.

There are less advantageous facts, however. The regional geopolitical situation, OPEC’s shrinking productivity, high inflation and interest rates will pose foreseeable risks to economic recovery and financial stability.