REAL ESTATE MATTERS: What Does 2015 Hold For Macau Property?

Juliet Risdon

Juliet Risdon is a Director of JML Property and a property investor.
Having established the company in 1994, JML Property offers Investment Property & Homes. It specializes in managing properties for owners and investors, and providing attractive and comfortable homes for tenants.

Across all fields of business there is a temptation for ‘experts’ to make predictions about the future. These are justified with facts and figures, stories of experience, and perhaps a hint of inside knowledge that others may not be privy to.
When things turn out in accordance with the prediction, its skill. When the prediction does not work out, it was due to some isolated, unforeseeable event totally beyond anyone’s control (in other words, not their fault).
Interestingly, given the track records of such experts in predictions, they are wrong as often as they are right. It’s just that when they are right, they tend to shout loudly, and when they are wrong they keep quiet, or lie.
Based on the data above, you would do just as well basing your decision making on a monkey throwing random darts at a dartboard as you would following an ‘expert’s’ forecast.
I’m sure you can already sense the huge reluctance I have in making predictions.
So when we are asked what is in store for Macau property in 2015 (……….or every year…..), we do give a great deal of thought to the question.
Here’s what I think.
When we help clients buy an investment property, the main question is whether or not it is a suitable rental property that will be relatively easy to rent because it’s desirable. This will affect the level of rent that can be asked for the property relative to other similar properties.
When we are helping clients buy a home, the main question is whether we can find something within the client’s budget that can be turned into a truly comfortable home.
When we are helping clients rent an apartment, the main question is whether we can find something within the client’s budget that meets their short term (2 year) needs and delivers the best value for money at that time.
These factors never change.
Property prices are high in Macau, and rental prices keep creeping up. The announcement earlier this week of the China border opening 24 hours will be welcome by many residents and employers. The main factor that pushes prices up is one of supply and demand.
With six new projects underway and an estimated 50,000 new jobs created over the coming 2 years, there are 2 main questions; Where are these 50,000 people going to come from, and where are they going to live ?
The ‘pressure cooker’ situation that we are experiencing in Macau right now will be eased somewhat as the relaxing of the border gates will allow the release of some steam. It is likely that many of the foreign workers who currently are crammed into small spaces dormitory style will be able to live in China and commute.
The perceived ‘fear’ of property prices falling if the border opens 24/7 has led to procrastination on the subject. In our opinion, the move is welcome and is at least 3 years overdue.
Having a roof over your head is a necessity, not a luxury, although you could be forgiven if you have started to believe it’s more like the latter in recent years.
Between Nova Park, One Oasis and Windsor Arch there are approximately 3,000 new apartments coming on to the market.
So will the migration of some workers across the border plus the 3,000 new apartments be enough to cope with the influx of 50,000 people (and don’t forget spouse and children on top of that…….) ?
I’ll let you draw your own conclusion.

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