Rear Window | Sitting on the dock of the bay

Severo Portela

The New Year is traditionally the time to set (or not) our own petty resolutions for improvements deemed to be important (to ourselves), and here we tick the box done. Fortunately it is also the right time for a reality check on the anticipatory guessing games where we take a solid analysis… beyond any contamination.

So, we shall begin with the idea that the high degree of autonomy granted by the Basic Law can be reviewed – contained would not be too strong a word – without challenging the integrity of the scope of the constitution. This high degree of autonomy is to be read as qualitative, not as quantitative, so that one’s perception of it can expand or retract without sullying the high degree of autonomy; thus avoiding any blemish on its reputation and integrity.

As an example of retraction, we have the case of an alleged lack of autonomy that seemed to hinder the MSAR from legislating according to the clause on non-political entities as an alternative to the bureau of civil and municipal affairs. As to an objective expansion, we raise the disproportionate procurement of imported cultural stuff, to a level that forces lawmaker Agnes Lam to question the costs of the pretext of an international movie festival, its attendances and the cultural neglect of local cultural consumers.

Both situations occur and concur with the same high degree of autonomy. Both situations breed from within the house of the MSAR. Differently, but not yet dramatically, are the concerns, in terms of erosion of autonomy, about the metaphorically re-drawn borders of a Macau which has become more integrated in the close-by reality of Hengqin/Zhuhai, and also far from the mega reality which is the making of the Great Bay Area. The Belt and Road Initiative does not qualify as a concern of the same type, since the problem is how Macau configures itself to find its place in that China XXI global vision.

Beginning with the Greater Bay Area – 11 metropoles, 70 million inhabitants, GDP of 1.4 trillion (USD) – it is a fact that the GBA policy, somewhat of a vision to overtake bay areas such as Tokyo and San Fran, was not given enough elaboration, but its rough outline of specializations, cooperation, segmentation, or even demographics are sufficiently clear to alert us at least to speculate on the overall impact upon the MSAR. For now, Macau just has to sit on the dock of the bay – as the tune goes – watching the tide roll away.

Since the introduction of the idea of cooperation, via the tool CEPA, and the view towards accelerating integration, we have to be pretty sure that Macau has to take into account the probable loss of economic autonomy in the process of developing the GBA. Further to the loss of economic autonomy is a logical consequence of the threat to the legal autonomy of a Region that cherishes a non-corrupt judiciary. Arbitration could be via the backdoor.

For now, the Hengqin/Zhuhai cooperation looks likely to spare the profile of Macau as the one and only gaming franchise in China. Funny ideas, however, can breed in the fabulously affluent casino industry. For now, the idea that Hengqin/Zhuhai and Macau shall complement each other seems to be drowning out others sailing around the Pearl River Delta.

The next phase of the developing Hengqin District should include a second Chimelong International, a Macau center and a… cultural and recreational center. We cannot spot the difference.