Rear Window | They are all birds of a feather

Severo Portela

It is no wonder that in such a small place like Macau – truly, any small place real or otherwise – rumor, gossip, bad information or good innuendo, move regularly strangely, and run even more strangely in times of worry, uncertainty, and change. But if the talk of the town is the local monoculture, the staple diet of the enclave of people outside THE CASINO (in capitals to highlight the MSAR’s status as the number one to Las Vegas’ distant second), rumor degenerates into wild guessing, blind maneuvering or breeds the lunatic stock of a conspiratorial state of mind: the theory of everything is possible.

The transitioning of the gaming concessions in 2020/2022 has everybody involved or party to the casino business – allow us to call them industry players – believing they can influence or rather forestall the future, thus positioning themselves to a second helping of the game.

Season this with some mundane episodes from the gaming world like the downfall of Steve Wynn or the resignation of casino-entrepreneur James Packer from his Crown Resorts board due to mental health issues, or first-tier junkets, officially known as gaming promoters, dreaming of upgrading to the rank of concessionaires, and the landscape is set for a game of anybody can and anything goes.

In times like this sometimes it takes just one wise word to reset the mood and calm the ongoing anxiety. The local deputy of the 13th National People´s Congress and former legislator Dominic Sio said to China Business Journal that he thought the outlook is that gaming concessions will be shuffled after 2020, meaning that today’s operators will not necessarily be operating in the future; whatever the criteria may be to be selected he underlines it will be a decision to be made by the SAR government. Sio believes he is able to postulate the type of shuffling to occur, and connects the momentum of re-application and the moment of re-licensing of concessions in which the government shall evaluate the performance of non-gambling elements.

Anyway, given the above, it is fair to presume that a conservative approach will be taken, with a limited tender. Alternatively, there may be a framework of full concessionaires (discarding the sub-concessionaires), give or take one or more operators, with the ones and only the ones who have answered the call for non-gaming or elements of diversification. Also, the role and profile of the gaming promoters are likely to be kept, despite the likelihood of an overall reassessment of the taxes levied on concessionaires and junkets.

Of course, nobody can ignore the importance of promoters in the casino credit chain, but to morph their role into something more diverse would challenge the conservative approach; an approach that seeks for integration of the model instead of one of fragmentation…given the special role promoters have in gaming operations. Although the Macau government may set out overhaul the regulatory framework under which promoters work the industry, the conservative approach we mention above would not radically alter their status. They will continue being birds of a feather. We cannot picture the Executive, its departments or bureaus talking relevant gaming and non-gaming policy matters with no one but the concessionaires.

We have to call a spade a spade and ask a simple question: could anyone picture the average junket claiming as does Galaxy’s vice-chairman Francis Lui about the Boracay venture that the “exciting project also clearly demonstrates Galaxy’s commitment to supporting China´s Belt and Road Initiative”?

P.S. Our final notes recall the now solved intriguing mystery of Coloane’s black substance and suggest a spring reading of Borges Book of Imaginary Beings: beings like the Amphisbaena, the two-headed snake…if chopped in half its two parts can reunite; Cerberus the three-headed dog that guards the gates of the underworld in the Greek Mythology; and the Fastitocalon, a massive whale that sailors mistake for an island.