September’s gross gaming revenue “isn’t going to wow anyone, not only due to seasonality (a shoulder season between the summer holidays and October Golden Week), but also due to super Typhoon Saola,” said JPMorgan analysts.
Last month, the city recorded its highest GGR in the post-pandemic period, as casino recovery continued to sustain momentum, with gaming revenue in August soaring a staggering 686% year-on-year to the highest levels since January 2020.
However, analysts are cautious about this month’s revenue, noting that the next significant catalyst for Macau GGR is likely to be the start of Golden Week on Oct. 1.
Under normal operating conditions, Golden Week is usually a spark for Macau casinos, but forecasting the intensity of the upside will be difficult until the holiday arrives.
“Many investors ask, ‘Is there a way to gauge how good (or bad) the Golden Week will be?’ ̇Not really, because of a very short booking window of Chinese travelers (only several days) and an even shorter window for Chinese gamblers,” concluded the JPMorgan analysts.
For analysts at Morgan Stanley Asia, the institution has forecast that September revenue is likely to be down 6% month-on-month, with the recent Typhoon Saola on Sept. 1 and 2 leading to weaker GGR.
Morgan Stanley analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung estimated September GGR would be at MOP16.1 billion, adding that September is normally a weaker month than the August holiday season, “at -9% month-on-month on average,” as cited in a report issued by GGR Asia. LV
