Singapore | Taxes boosted to shore up revenue for aging nation

Singapore Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat announced a range of tax increases in his budget, including a surprise hike in property levies, as he seeks to shore up savings to cope with a rapidly aging population.

The stamp duty on residential properties in excess of SGD1 million (USD761,600) was increased to 4 percent from 3 percent, effective from today, Heng said in a speech in Parliament. The government also plans to raise the goods and services tax by 2 percentage points to 9 percent sometime from 2021 to 2025, he said.

“There is a need to strengthen our fiscal footing,” Heng said. “In the next decade, between 2021 to 2030, if we do not take measures early, we will not have enough revenues to meet our growing needs.”

Policy makers had warned of higher taxes to balance a budget that they see as too reliant on investment returns, and that will see new strains in the years to come. Spending on health and retirement benefits are set to grow over the years as the elderly population climbs, while the government is also planning on higher expenditure on infrastructure, security and education.

“The message is that the economy is maturing, the population is aging,” said Irvin Seah, an economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. “In order to cater to the needs to various segments of the society going forward – corporations, individuals young and old – this budget is about re-balancing.”

While Singapore has substantial reserves that it draws on to help fund the budget, Heng said the government must act prudently as the economy matures and the population ages. Income from reserves and investments managed by GIC Pte, Temasek Holdings Pte and the Monetary Authority of Singapore is already the largest contributor to the government’s overall revenue, estimated at almost S$16 billion in the fiscal year beginning April 1.

The hike in GST is set to boost revenue by almost 0.7 percent of GDP a year. Heng said the timing of the increase will depend on the state of the economy, how much expenditures grow and how buoyant the existing taxes are, but added that he expects “we will need to do so earlier rather than later in the period.”

“The GST increase is necessary because even after exploring various options to manage our future expenditures through prudent spending, saving and borrowing for infrastructure, there is still a gap,” the minister said. “This boost in revenues will be vital in closing this gap.”

The budget includes planned offsets to cushion the blow to lower-income consumers from higher taxes, while the delayed implementation of the tax increases will allow residents to ease into the changes.

Singapore is facing a severe aging crisis. The share of the population that’s 65 years and older is set this year to match those younger than 15 for the first time. The fertility rate remains half the global average, at 1.2 births per woman in 2015, according to World Bank data. And the government has maintained fairly strict immigration policies to ensure locals have enough job opportunities.

For now, Singapore’s economic outlook for 2018 remains bright. The boom in global trade last year that’s helped spur manufacturing, especially in semiconductors, is spreading to other sectors of the economy. The government sees growth at slightly above the middle of its forecast range of 1.5 to 3.5 percent this year, moderating from last year’s expansion of 3.6 percent.

“As a small and open economy, we will always be vulnerable to fluctuations in the global economy and financial markets,” Heng said. “We can never predict where or when the next crisis will come. But we know, when the next crisis hits, we will be able to weather the storm because we have our reserves.” Bloomberg

Key highlights from budget

The Goods and Services Tax (GST) will be increased to 9 percent from 7 percent sometime from 2021 to 2025. The budget surplus for FY2017 is estimated at SGD9.6 billion when previous projections indicated it would stand at SGD1.9 billion.  Infrastructure spending was raised to SGD20 billion. Top marginal stamp duty for properties was also raised to 4 percent from 3 percent.