Thailand’s establishment silences voices of change

Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Nikkei Asia

Nearly 15 months since Thailand’s general election on May 14, 2023, a political reset is underway to preserve the disguised autocratic power of the royalist-conservative establishment.

The key issue is whether the traditional power holders will permit policy progress under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s coalition government. If they aim only to retain power without advancing reforms, Thailand may remain in political stasis with inconsistent policy initiatives.

When the Move Forward Party emerged as the top vote-getter in what seemed like a pivotal election, it posed an existential threat to established power. Campaigning on reforms of the military, monarchy, bureaucracy, and economy, Move Forward secured 151 of 500 elected seats, including 32 of 33 in Bangkok. The Pheu Thai Party, with its roots under ousted former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and dominant since 2001, captured 141 seats, marking its first electoral loss.

The two parties combined for two-thirds of the vote and formed a tentative governing pact, overshadowing pro-establishment parties like Bhumjaithai, Palang Pracharat, and United Thai Nation. Move Forward and Pheu Thai’s support for military reforms and lese-majeste law amendment threatened the establishment. Consequently, Move Forward faced accusations of trying to “overthrow the democratic system with the king as head of state,” and its leader, Pita Limjaroenrat, was charged with owning media shares in violation of the 2017 constitution.

With Move Forward’s constitutional challenges, a so-called super deal allowed Thaksin to return to Thailand after 15 years on Aug. 22, the same day Srettha received military-appointed Senate votes to become Prime Minister. This move effectively split the Move Forward-Pheu Thai alliance. Thaksin received a royal pardon, reducing his eight-year corruption sentence to 12 months, served comfortably in the Police General Hospital before his parole in February. Meanwhile, Pheu Thai withdrew its calls for military and monarchy reforms.

Since Thaksin’s return, his political maneuvers have displeased palace and military circles, resulting in a lese-majeste charge against him post-parole.

Srettha faced indictment by 40 outgoing senators last May for a constitutional violation involving a cabinet reshuffle that included a Thaksin loyalist convicted of bribing court officials.

Thai politics stagnated with Move Forward relegated to opposition and Srettha facing potential removal, while Thaksin reengaged politically. Pheu Thai-led policy initiatives, like the 10,000 baht digital wallet scheme and various projects, progressed slowly.

Political clarity awaited the May-June Senate selection. The 200-member Senate was chosen from over 48,000 applicants through an internal process, favoring older patronage networks. Bhumjaithai reportedly secured over 120 of 200 Senate seats by manipulating the process.

On June 15, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul received two top royal decorations, reflecting the party’s significant Senate influence. The Senate’s roles include appointing crucial agencies, approving charter amendments, and blocking bills like amnesty for lese-majeste offenders.

Srettha also received two royal decorations on July 12. With Move Forward’s likely dissolution and Thaksin’s lese-majeste constraints, Srettha’s continued tenure seems probable, though Anutin could replace him.

This political reset, which subverts the democratic process, aims to stabilize the establishment forces. If it allows these forces to feel secure, Thailand may avoid further economic stagnation and political decay, though its democracy will remain weak and unstable.

[Abridged]

Courtesy Thitinan Pongsudhirak/Nikkei Asia