Tourism regulator forecasts 3% fewer visitors in 2020

Macau visitor arrivals will drop by 3% in 2020, according to a prediction by Maria Helena de Senna Fernandes, director of the Macao Government Tourism Office (MGTO), at the Office’s annual press conference yesterday.

When asked for a forecast of this year’s visitor numbers, the director said, “This is the first year, since I assumed this position, [that] I have to forecast negative growth.” The director announced the information in a measured manner. “As far as I can remember, I have never announced a forecast of negative growth,” Fernandes added.

She then recalled the double-digit drop in visitor arrivals in the last two months of last year and revealed that she and her team had prepared themselves for a drop in 2020.

Another factor that has led the Office to make such a forecast was the 6% drop in visitor arrivals during last year’s four-day Grand Prix period.

As for the Chinese New Year period, which will warrant a seven-day holiday period in mainland China, the MGTO senses a drop in visitor arrivals. The Office forecasted a drop of about 6%.

Last year, the Chinese New Year holidays saw about 1.2 million visitor arrivals. “A 6% drop will leave about 1.1 million for this year,” Fernandes said. “Although we forecast a drop, servicing 1.1 million people over a seven-day period is really not that bad.”

She further explained that a lot of factors could cause the same results. “It could be the Trade War or other external factors,” she said, adding that it is more important to be well-prepared for fluctuations.

“We also saw that more people opt for destinations [further away] during longer holidays,” Fernandes said.

The slow pace of growth in overnight tourists has long been a concern for Macau. The office, however, has worked to extend the stay of tourists. Looking to the future, the director reiterated it is an area they will continue to work hard on.

“There are still new hotel rooms being completed in the coming years,” advised Fernandes. “Focus will be placed on origins farther away from Macau. [The distance] makes staying overnight necessary [for tourists from those places].”

Macau currently has 41,000 hotel rooms, and there will be several thousand new rooms coming onto the market.

The office introduced smart traffic management last year. Information technology and big data were used to divert tourist traffic to less crowded spots.

“Besides obtaining tourism-related data from other government departments, this year we also hope to invite our industry members to upload data to the platform for everyone’s use,” explained Ricky Hoi, deputy director of the MGTO, also present at the press conference.

Macau was recently rated second last in an evaluation conducted by a British insurance company to measure the friendliness of different cities for backpacking tourism. The rating based its evaluation on the cost per day in the evaluated city. Macau is rated as less expensive than only Tokyo.

“One of our major plans this year is to commence smart itinerary planning,” revealed Fernandes. “I believe this [will be] a helpful service for backpackers [to plan their trip in Macau].”

“Furthermore, we have received applications for about 1,000 budget accommodation rooms,” Fernandes further disclosed. “I am not saying that all backpackers will opt for budget accommodation, but it can provide more options, definitely.”

Meanwhile, a core plan for the Office this year is to reopen the Grand Prix Museum, which has been closed for expansion and renovation. The expansion has necessitated the relocation of the Wine Museum, which was adjacent to the Grand Prix Museum. Fernandes said her Office is still looking for a site for the relocation of the Wine Museum.

Responding to the preparation for the cessation of Air Macau’s concession in November this year, Fernandes stressed that work is always being done with airlines, both in and out of Macau, to market the city. “The cessation should not be considered a trigger to a sudden addition of marketing efforts,” emphasized the director.