Casino revenue forecast to rise in January

Casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) is expected to rise 6.6% year-over-year and 13.3% month-over-month in January, fueled by the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, according to a forecast by Seaport Research Partners.

According to the research firm, last month’s GGR totaled approximately MOP 18.2 billion, which is about 80% of the comparable 2019 level. This represents a decline of 2% year-over-year and 1.3% month-over-month, falling short of Seaport’s early-month estimate of a 5% year-over-year increase.

“December was soft during the three weeks of the month and was negatively impacted by the three-day visit to Macau by China President Xi Jinping,” said analyst Vitaly Umansky in a Monday report. “However, the last 10 days of the month improved materially as higher spending customers began to return.”

For the first quarter of 2025, Seaport expects a rise of 4.2% from last year and 4% from the previous quarter. “The Q1 4.2% year-over-year increase is weaker than the 6.1% year-over-year in Q4 2024 as year-over-year comparisons are becoming more difficult,” the analyst noted.

Seaport’s forecast suggests continued growth in the Macau gaming industry throughout 2025, with an estimated 8% year-over-year increase. The firm believes fiscal stimulus and regulatory easing measures in China will help improve consumer and business confidence, leading to a stronger recovery in the base mass segment.

“If the Chinese economy improves more than expected and/or if base mass recovers more strongly, the year-on-year growth would be higher,” Umansky stated. Victoria Chan