Jorge Costa Oliveira
The Israeli government is not interested in peace, does not want an agreement to free hostages and end the war in Gaza, nor does it want to de-escalate the conflict there or in the north with Hezbollah. Netanyahu and his radical Jewish allies have worked for decades to eliminate Fatah and supported the creation of the monster that is Hamas, betting on the radicalization and polarization of the “Palestinian issue.” Netanyahu and his government of radicals, for whom a “two-state solution” is anathema, are using the October 7 massacre to promote the war in pursuit of “total victory.”
Furthermore, Netanyahu desperately wants to remain in office to avoid the continuation of the corruption trial against him, which could lead to his [likely] conviction.
Palestinian leadership today is radicalized and continues to reject a “two-state solution.” They prefer to keep fighting for the destruction of Israel, to educate their children for “martyrdom,” and to create terrorist militias.
The current leadership of Iran finances terrorist movements like Hamas, Hezbollah, and AnsarAllah, amid growing unpopularity of the theocratic regime. A Gamaan survey from February 2024 of the adult Iranian population shows that in a referendum asking, “Islamic Republic: yes or no?” only 16.5% of respondents supported maintaining an Islamic republic, whilst 74.6% were against it.
The assassination of the Hamas leader in Tehran provides the Iranian leadership with an excuse to ride the anti-Western histrionic rhetoric, using external enemies as a way to re-legitimize an unpopular regime, trying to divert attention from internal repression. But they must be careful not to spark a new war that could increase popular discontent and be fatal to the radical theocratic regime.
Interestingly, in the same Gamaan survey, respondents were also asked who they considered to be the primary party at fault in the Israel-Hamas conflict, with about 35% blaming Hamas, 20% blaming Israel, and 31% blaming both sides.
Neither Israel, Hamas, nor Iran want peace. Part of Western public opinion demands efforts in that direction, while another part is fed up with this charade. The American government, on the eve of elections, wants to capitalize on any agreement—whether it be a truce, a ceasefire, or whatever—that it can politically leverage for the Democratic candidacy.
Radicalization and polarization will certainly continue to dominate Israeli and Palestinian politics. Soon, we will all lose patience with this endless hyped excitement over what has no solution and will wish that the parties in this conflict go die far away.
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