Jefferies projects strong revenue recovery amid economic optimism

Gaming analysts are reporting an improving economic outlook for the region as the local government has announced its expectations of a higher gross gaming revenue (GGR) next year.

According to David Katz, a Jefferies Equity Research analyst, the casino industry in Macau is projected to reach approximately 82% of pre-Covid business levels this month, driven by increased daily play rates from both high rollers and mass-market customers.

Macau’s gaming revenue has seen a notable uptick, with daily averages rising from USD71 million in early November to USD78.6 million.

Katz forecasts that the total revenue for November could reach between USD2.2 billion and USD2.3 billion, an increase from his previous estimate of USD2.1 billion to USD2.2 billion.

This positive trend comes as the office of Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng issued a prediction for 2025 casino revenue at USD29.9 billion (MOP240 billion), reflecting an 11% increase over 2024 and a substantial 31% jump from 2023.

The optimistic projections are partly attributed to ongoing governmental economic stimulus measures aimed at alleviating macroeconomic pressures within the region.

Katz noted that while the outlook is promising, visibility remains low due to uncertainties surrounding U.S.-China relations, particularly following recent U.S. elections.

He expressed concerns that this geopolitical tension could negatively impact companies like Wynn Resorts and Las Vegas Sands, which have significant exposure to the Macau market.

In his analysis, Katz highlighted Galaxy Entertainment as his top pick among Macau-based gaming stocks, citing its strong market share and robust cash reserves.

He remains optimistic about Sands due to its ongoing hotel upgrades in Macau and the expansion of its Marina Bay Sands property in Singapore, which is expected to perform well in 2025.

During Ho’s evaluation of government report on Tuesday, Ho said the government is projecting a significant increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the current year, expecting it to reach MOP216 billion, or an average of MOP18 billion per month.

Remarkably, as of October, the average monthly GGR has already hit MOP19 billion. If this trend continues, the total GGR for 2023 could soar to MOP228 billion.

He highlighted a shift in the gaming sector, where revenue from the mass market has now surpassed 70% of the total gaming revenue, a change from the previous dominance of VIP room revenues.

In a speech delivered at the Legislative Assembly, Ho expressed confidence in the region’s gaming sector, stating, “This is a conservative estimate, and I believe we can achieve our target.”

In 2023, the city recorded a GGR of MOP183 billion, which accounts, which accounts for 37.2% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

He also noted that this figure is expected to rise to about 40% this year.

In previous discussions in the AL, Ho emphasized the importance of maintaining gaming revenue at 40% of GDP while diversifying the economy through the “1+4” industries, which include tourism, trade, and technology.

The Chief Executive projected that GDP for this year will fall between MOP410 billion and MOP420 billion, a notable recovery compared to the pre-pandemic GDP of MOP444.5 billion in 2019.