The paper bear

Jorge Costa Oliveira

Russia has 5,977 nuclear warheads, of which 1,500 are past their expiration date, according to estimates from the Federation of American Scientists. Of the remaining 4,500, most are strategic nuclear weapons. Among these, experts estimate that only about 1,500 Russian warheads are currently “deployed” (ready to be used) at missile bases, on bombers, or on submarines. Additionally, Russia is believed to possess a large number (2,000?) of tactical nuclear weapons—smaller and less destructive, designed for short-range use on battlefields or at sea.

Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, every time the Russian armed forces find themselves in a difficult situation — whether during the initial, feeble advance on Kyiv, the defeats suffered in the battles of Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and on Ukraine’s southern coast, during Ukrainian advances, or following the destruction of Russian fleet ships in the Black Sea — or when international sanctions increase, beyond the growling of various siloviki, henchmen, and regime thugs, Putin repeats the mantra of threatening to use nuclear weapons (tactical ones, presumably).

Russian military doctrine states that nuclear weapons will only be used if the Russian state itself is threatened. Western countries seem to believe that Putin will neither violate nor alter this doctrine. The U.S. has issued multiple warnings, indicating there would be serious consequences, though without specifying what they would be. China, for its part, has already informed the Russian president that it considers the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine unacceptable.

Part of Russia’s threat is also to remind us that a power without nuclear weapons cannot militarily defeat a superpower that possesses them. But in this case, the issue at hand is whether Ukraine maintains its territorial integrity or cedes part of its territory in exchange for a lasting peace (?), as well as the [neutral?] military status of Ukraine. Ukraine neither has the military capability nor the intent to invade and defeat Russia or to pose a threat to the Russian Federation.

Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine have not been and are not considered serious, and their use in this conflict would constitute a violation of Russian military doctrine and would tarnish Russia’s international image for generations.

Interestingly, much like in Aesop’s fable “The Boy Who Cried Wolf,” this repeated outcry of “Putin and the nuclear weapons” ends up undermining the credibility of the Russian leadership and the might of the Russian armed forces. Combined with the fiasco that the “special military operation” in Ukraine has turned out to be, it is transforming the Russian Federation into a ‘paper bear.’

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