Brazil | ‘Tropical Trump’ Bolsonaro wins first round: People weigh stark visions of future in runoff election

Brazilians showed their disgust with corruption and rising crime in the first round of presidential voting, nearly giving an outright victory to a brash-speaking former army captain who has promised to restore “traditional values,” jail crooked politicians and give police a freer hand to shoot drug traffickers.

But with far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro getting 46 percent of the vote yesterday [Macau time], short of the 50-plus percent he needed, voters also signaled they were not quite ready to make a final decision. On Oct. 28, Bolsonaro will face second-place finisher Fernando Haddad in a runoff vote. Haddad, the Workers’ Party standard-bearer who was appointed by jailed ex-President Luiz Inacio da Silva, got 29 percent in the first round, and polls have predicted a close race in the runoff.

Bolsonaro was expected to come out in front, but he far outperformed predictions, blazing past competitors with more financing, the institutional backing of traditional parties and much more free air time on television. The candidate from the tiny Social and Liberal Party made savvy use of Twitter and Facebook to spread his message that only he could end the corruption, crime and economic malaise that has seized Brazil in recent years — and bring back the good old days and traditional values.

“This is a victory for honest people who want the best for Brazil,” said Bianca Santos, a 40-year-old psychologist who gathered outside a hotel where Bolsonaro was watching the returns. “I believe he is the only one with a serious plan to end crime.”

For voters, Bolsonaro and Haddad represent starkly different visions for the future. Bolsonaro has promised to slash spending, privatize as much as possible in a country long heavy on state control and be a check on social movements that have gained much ground in recent years.

Meanwhile, true to the Workers’ Party’s leftist roots, Haddad has promised to fight long-standing inequalities, scrap a major labor reform passed last year and invest more in education.

Where Brazil’s next leader takes the economy, the largest in Latin America, will have a large impact on surrounding countries that are trading partners with Brazil. The next leader will also have an influence on Venezuela, both diplomatically and practically, as thousands of Venezuelans have crossed Brazil’s northern border.

Bolsonaro has promised a harder line on Venezuela and other leftist regimes and closer ties with the United States. It’s not clear what Bolsonaro would do to further isolate Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, but he once suggested creating camps for the Venezuelans who have fled the country’s economic collapse.

But much of his campaign focused on domestic issues. Bolsonaro has painted a nation in collapse, where drug traffickers and politicians steal with equal impunity, and moral rot has set in. He has advocated loosening gun ownership laws so individuals can fight off criminals, encouraging police to shoot more crooks and restoring “traditional” Brazilian values — though some take issue with his definition of those values in light of his approving allusions to the country’s 1964-1985 dictatorship and his derisive comments about women, blacks and gay people.

Haddad, a former education minister, has also spent much time arguing that da Silva, his mentor, was unfairly jailed — a strategy aimed at attracting voters who still feel strong affection for da Silva despite a corruption conviction. Workers’ Party stalwarts are still fuming about the 2016 impeachment and removal of office of President Dilma Rousseff, da Silva’s predecessor.

Matthew Taylor, an associate professor of Latin American politics at American University, said that in the weeks before the runoff vote Bolsonaro will likely hit Haddad hard on the theme of corruption within the Workers’ Party and da Silva, who Brazilians simply call Lula.

“Haddad has a huge albatross around his neck because of the corruption and all the rhetoric about the impeachment and Lula,” said Taylor. “Bolsonaro will hit back on that.”

Indeed, Bolsonaro already showed his ability to tap deep anger in Brazil with the traditional political class and “throw the bums out” rage after a massive corruption investigation revealed staggering levels of graft. AP

MDT Explains: How Bolsonaro used Trump tactics

Long before the election that saw Jair Bolsonaro get 46 percent the vote in the first round of the presidential race, many observers flirted with the idea that the far-right congressman was a “tropical” Trump. Bolsonaro, who will now compete in a second round runoff on Oct. 28, presented himself as someone who tells it like it is while promising to dismantle a dysfunctional political system and seeking to capture the imagination of many citizens afraid of losing their place in an increasingly diverse and inclusive society.

‘STRAIGHT TALK’

Perhaps the biggest similarity and likely the one that initially gave rise to the comparisons between Bolsonaro and Trump is that neither man appears to measure his words. In the 2016 U.S. elections, Trump often billed himself as the man who wasn’t afraid to say what everyone else was thinking. Bolsonaro shares the same lack of filter. Some of the comments that have gotten him in trouble reflect longstanding ideological positions, like his repeated praise for Brazil’s 1964-1985 military dictatorship. Other comments may be more off the cuff and a wink at his reputation for shunning the “politically correct,” like when he told an audience that he had a daughter “in a moment of weakness” after four sons.

BASH MAINSTREAM MEDIA

Bolsonaro and his three oldest sons, who are also politicians, have hammered away at Brazil’s main media organizations, accusing them of everything from telling outright lies about the candidate to ignoring his rise in the polls and endorsements from other politicians. Like Trump, they accuse the media of propping up the country’s traditional elite and of trying to derail a campaign that might threaten it.

SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING

For candidates who don’t trust the media, social networks provide the perfect outlet. Bolsonaro, like Trump, has made heavy use of Twitter and Facebook to talk directly to voters. That became especially important after the candidate was stabbed on Sept. 6 and confined to the hospital for more than three weeks. Last week, even after being released from the hospital, Bolsonaro skipped the most important televised debate on major network Globo, citing his doctors’ orders. Instead he held nightly Facebook live sessions with political allies and did interviews with friendly stations

FLOATING FRAUD

Bolsonaro has raised the specter of fraud and said it could rob him of the election. A week before the vote, he told a television station he would not accept any result but his own victory, implying that the size of support he had seen at street rallies indicated he would win, even though the polls were close. A few days later, he backed off those comments, saying he would accept the election results but wouldn’t call his rival to concede. Sound familiar? Trump trod a very similar path.

USE OF PROXIES

Similar to how Trump’s campaign had Donald Trump Jr. and other children sometimes speak for their dad, Bolsonaro has often depended on his three eldest sons to float ideas, deny critical press reports and make outlandish claims. The latest example: On Sunday [Monday], while Brazilians were going to the polls, Flavio Bolsonaro, who is running for the senate, shared a video on Twitter that purportedly appeared to show a voting machine that had been tampered with. Within hours, the country’s electoral court announced that it was a false report. However, by then it had surely been seen by millions. MDT/AP