Brexit: Britain likely to face setbacks over trade deals

An absence of trade experts based in the United Kingdom (U.K.), due to the fact that since Britain joined the European Union (EU) in 1973 trade terms have been negociated solely by the EU, is likely to cause a hitch during the negotiations over Britain’s departure from the international organization.

This was the point stressed by Martin Holland, director of the National Center for Research on Europe, who was invited by the European Union Academic Programme in Macau (EUAP-
M) to take part in its “Speakers’ and Visiting Speakers’ Series.” Holland explained that Britain currently lacks trade expertise and competence, which has resulted in a global campaign to bring back its citizens who are experienced in negotiating trade deals.

“They don’t have human resources. Even when Britain wants to have trade deals and doesn’t have difficulties, it’s a matter of human resources,” said the expert who is also a professor at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand.
“How can [Britain] negotiate with America and the EU simultaneously?” Holland asked.

Holland, speaking on the sidelines of the event, told the Times that Britain might in fact lose some of its investors if the country fails to adequately negotiate bilateral trade arrangements.

“It’s probably a 10-year process for Britain to negotiate its own bilateral trade affairs once it leaves the EU. Investors don’t like uncertainty,” Holland suggested.

In response to a question as to what trade model the U.K. would follow in terms of its post-
Brexit trade deal, the professor briefly said, “it’s still a question mark.”

Essentially, the U.K. aims to pursue a liberal free trade agreement, which means free trade and the reduction of tariffs, yet the process will take some time.

As there are 163 countries in the World Trade Organization, the transition is likely to be a generational process.

David Davis, Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union in Prime Minister Theresa May’s government, has declared that the country will refuse to accept attempts on the part of the EU to maintain the authority of European judges to arbitrate on the rights of citizens residing in the U.K. following Brexit.

According to U.K. reports, workers from other European countries would continually receive benefits and pensions if they are British residents, but would lose ‘citizenship’ rights, including the ability to vote in general elections.

On this subject, Holland argued, “the outcome would be what the EU wants it to be,” as the EU is in the driving seat.

“It’s very clear that EU has rules, laws, treaties and obligations and those things are not flexible or negotiable. The U.K. has to respect and respond to those,” he noted.

The scholar is optimistic that British-European nationals in the U.K. would have their rights protected, as will the 1.3 million British residents residing in mainland Europe.

Holland then contended that the only way for the Brexit process to be pleasant is if the country is prepared to compromise on some of its “red lines” – matters such as the price of departure, or the so-called divorce bill.

The country is currently gearing up for disputes with the EU over the structure of divorce talks and the future role of the European court within Britain.

Complex negotiations for Britain to leave the EU are due to commence next month – negotiations that technically should have started six weeks ago.

“The actual negotiations can take off and begin after the British election but again it will be rather provisional because nothing is going to happen seriously until after the German election,” the scholar noted.

As the election in Germany will be on September 23, negotiations are unlikely to take place before October.