Casinos surpass expectations in October as high-end gaming leads recovery

The casino industry defied expectations in October, posting its strongest gains since mid-summer as casinos recorded gross gaming revenue (GGR) of nearly MOP24.09 billion, representing a 15.9% year-on-year increase.

Analysts attributed the strong performance to sustained demand in high-end segments following the Golden Week holiday period.

The October Golden Week, a key festive period for mainland Chinese consumers, ran from October 1 to 8.

While initial holiday traffic was reported as slightly softer than expected, overall revenue growth was driven by strong activity in VIP and premium mass gaming throughout the rest of the month.

Seaport Research Partners’ senior analyst Vitaly Umansky noted that high VIP hold rates in some casinos, along with robust premium mass play, contributed significantly to the surge.

Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella highlighted a sequential improvement of 31.7% compared with September, surpassing historical trends.

JP Morgan analysts described October as the “strongest GGR in six years,” with VIP revenue rising 40-45% and mass market revenue up 12-13%.

The brokerage noted that temporary weakness in late September and early October, caused by typhoon disruptions, did not affect the longer-term recovery trend.

According to Citigroup’s George Choi and JP Morgan’s DS Kim, Macau’s National Day “Golden Week” started strong, drawing a record daily average of 143,000 arrivals, but spending tailed off mid-week as a typhoon disrupted travel and the Singapore Grand Prix “siphoned high-rollers,” Bloomberg reported Saturday.

Market sentiment, however, tells a different story. The Bloomberg Intelligence Index of Macau casino operators fell 10.3% in October, tracking investor caution over margins, regulatory scrutiny, and China’s slowing economy. The Hang Seng Index, meanwhile, slipped 3.5%, marking a fifth straight monthly decline.

Cumulative GGR for the first 10 months of 2025 reached nearly MOP205.43 billion, an 8% increase over the same period last year.

Analysts expect the gaming revenue to continue growing in November, forecasting an increase of 8–11.5% year-on-year, with further acceleration likely in December due to easier comparisons with the previous year.