Casinos to face revenue decline in September

Gross gaming revenue for Macau’s casinos is forecast to decline in September, according to analysts’ predictions. After record-breaking revenue in August, the summer momentum is expected to subside next month.

Macau generated MOP19.75 billion in gross gaming revenue in August, a 6.2% increase from the previous month. “August was likely helped by the calendar, with the month having five Fridays and Saturdays and four Sundays (14 days in total out of 31 days), compared with 12 weekend days in July,” said Vitaly Umansky of Seaport Research Partners in a report.

However, September is typically one of the weakest months for casinos. In a note, J.P. Morgan analysts predicted that September performance will translate to a daily run rate of MOP637 million, which will be an 81% recovery compared to 2019. Umansky also noted that “September is generally the weakest or second-weakest month of the year.”

Deutsche Bank analyst Carlo Santarelli expects September revenue of MOP18 billion, down 18.8% from September 2019 levels.

“This represents a monthly sequential per day contraction of 6.2%, which compares to the 5.5% average sequential per day decline in September, relative to August, over the period from 2013 through 2019,” Santarelli wrote. Most analysts predict September gaming revenue will range between MOP17.5 billion to MOP18 billion.

Victoria Chan