U.S.-China relations have never been worse. Verbal sparring between a Trump administration determined to find someone to blame for the pandemic and China’s aggressive diplomats pushing conspiracy theories […] has exacerbated tensions and overshadowed previous pandemic cooperation,” including donations of tons of equipment and antiviral medicines to Wuhan, and Chinese exports of personal protective equipment to major American cities, Drew Thompson, a former U.S. Defence Department official responsible for managing bilateral relations with China, Taiwan and Mongolia wrote this in Foreign Policy this week.
In his argument, Thompson explains that with bilateral trade crashing, diplomatic relations at their worst, and a politically divided United States fighting an epidemic, this seems like an opportune time for Chinese President Xi Jinping to achieve a critical element of his “China Dream” and call on the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to force Taiwan to unify with the People’s Republic. But despite “a recent outbreak of jingoistic language, the chances of China’s military crossing the Taiwan Strait to subdue the self-governing island still remain small.”
China has flexed its military muscles on the periphery of its territory throughout the pandemic, flying fighters across the centerline of the strait and bomber encirclement missions around Taiwan, the diplomat points out.
Maritime missions in the South China Sea have included deploying an aircraft carrier, a survey ship now operating in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone, and coast guard vessels ramming and sinking a Vietnamese fishing boat, he recalls.
China’s threats directed at Taiwan “go beyond demonstrations of military might.” On January 15, a spokesperson for the Beijing-run Taiwan Affairs Office noted that calls for “reunification by force” were growing on the mainland, and on April 15, the office published an article articulating China’s long-standing triggers for a military attack on Taiwan.
Taiwan, however, is not playing along with China’s plans, “with all trends on the island pointing to political, social, and economic divergence from the mainland.”
Taiwanese President Tsai has just been elected to a second term and remains committed to engaging the mainland from a position of equality without acknowledging Beijing’s “One China” policy.
Taiwan’s citizens increasingly identify themselves as Taiwanese, and Taiwan’s businesses are joining a global trend in reducing their reliance on China by shifting production to cheaper Southeast Asia or back home to Taiwan itself.
“Twenty years of military buildup gives Xi a military option to solve a policy problem that his predecessors didn’t have. What had been impossible in the past is theoretically possible now,” Thompson says.
Corroborating this theory, the Taipei Times recently warned in a headline: “Taiwan must prepare for attack.”
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might act aggressively toward Taiwan amid the chaos of the Covid-19 pandemic. While no one is seeking a war, the Republic of China and its friends should responsibly prepare for various contingencies and enhance deterrence against China, the newspaper says.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to maritime ports in Zhejiang, China, raised eyebrows among China-watchers.
According to Taipei Times, some experts have said that Xi conducted the trip to signal the economy’s reopening or to offer assurances to the Zhejiang faction, while others have said that the province is home to the East Sea Fleet, “which would figure prominently in any blockade or even invasion of Taiwan.”
On the other side of the Strait the warnings are more bellicose. On Saturday, Beijing accused the “Taiwan independence” secessionists about recent attempts to challenge the mainland’s bottom line, Xinhua state news agency reported.
Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remarks when asked about a recent proposal from Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party to delete “national reunification” in amending the “regulations on people’s relations across the Taiwan Strait.”
“Do not underestimate the strong will and firm determination of the 1.4 billion Chinese people to defend our national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Ma stressed.
Beijing is trying to calm this rising nationalist sentiment, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported yesterday.
A number of commentators on social media have called for the island to be reunified by force, something Beijing has never ruled out. However, some analysts believe the authorities want to play a longer game and are now trying to cool the “nationalist fever” of a growing chorus of voices calling for China to take advantage of the Covid-19 pandemic by invading Taiwan.
SCMP recalls an article published earlier this month in the magazine of the Central Party School, which trains senior officials, drawing on historical parallels with the Qing dynasty’s conquest of the island in the 17th century to highlight the importance of patience and careful planning.
The Qing, who came from Manchuria, seized power in Beijing and northern China in 1644 and gradually consolidated their control over the Chinese mainland in the following decades.
The last remnants of the defeated Ming dynasty fled to Taiwan in 1662 and expelled the Dutch colonists.
The 5,000-word article in Study Times, written by historian Deng Tao, said the Qing had spent the next 20 years preparing for the invasion and conquest of the island and argued that they had also used political, diplomatic and economic measures to achieve their goal rather than just relying on force.
The Post also quoted a Beijing-
based military source as saying “the mainland authorities still hope the situation can be resolved peacefully and the majority of Taiwanese still want to maintain the status quo.” PC
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