Chinese analyst pessimistic about Macau’s July GGR

An analyst from a Chinese securities agency in Hong Kong has forecast that Macau’s July gross gaming revenue (GGR) will plunge to MOP100 million at its lowest.

Earlier this month, Citigroup had forecast the city’s July GGR to be about MOP400 million.

Yan Zhaojun, a strategic analyst from Zhongtai International in Hong Kong, told Hong Kong media outlet Oriental Daily that Macau’s GGR in July may run even lower than the level Citigroup has estimated.

He based this forecast on precedents of the delayed resumption of relative normalcy. He pointed out that even though the city has recently loosened its lockdown orders, interactions with neighboring Zhuhai will take at least two weeks to return after disease control measures are lifted.

In light of this, the analyst suggested that Macau’s July GGR would not exceed MOP200 million in the best case, and there is a cloudy forecast for August.

He believes that significant border control easing between the city and the mainland will not happen before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the dates for which have not been disclosed.

Past congresses have usually taken place in October or November.

Given this, Yan forecasts Macau’s GGR for this year to fall below MOP60 billion from an original forecast of MOP80 billion.

After 10 days of de-facto lockdown, the city’s casinos were allowed to reopen on the stroke of midnight last Saturday, July 23. Despite the green light, not all casinos rushed to reopen their doors to the public. The gaming establishments located in the city center did not reopen immediately.

Additionally, due to capacity restrictions imposed by the government, casinos that reopened right away saw 20% lower patronage than before the de-facto lockdown period, according to a casino manager who spoke to local online media outlet Allin Media.

Some casinos employed unconventional measures to discourage people from entering because of the government’s capacity restrictions. For example, one casino prioritized entry for hotel guests and required entrants to have at least HKD3,000 in hand. This was a temporary measure to avoid crowds gathering at the entrance, according to the media outlet.

The city’s GGR figure for the second quarter was MOP8.5 billion, and MOP26.27 billion for the first half of the year. The former figure reflects a 52% fall year-on-year, while the latter amounts to only 30% of the yearly total for 2021.