Citi: May GGR forecast raised 1.2% as outlook improves

Investment bank Citigroup has raised its forecast for Macau’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) in May to MOP21.25 billion, up from MOP21 billion.

This revision reflects stronger-than-expected gaming activity during the week of May 19-25, driven largely by increased visitation and spending at the newly opened Capella at Galaxy Macau.

Citigroup reports that the GGR for the first 25 days of May reached approximately MOP17.5 billion. During the week of May 19-25, the daily GGR averaged MOP686 million, a 16% increase from the previous week’s daily average of MOP593 million.

VIP gaming volumes rose 25% to 30% month over month, while mass-market revenue declined 10%.

Despite slightly lower VIP hold rates compared to the prior week, VIP hold rates remained above normal levels.

The revised forecast represents 82% of May 2019’s pre-pandemic levels and marks a 5% increase compared to May 2024.

For the remaining days of May, Citigroup expects daily GGR to average MOP625 million, a modest 1% increase over last year’s daily average.

JPMorgan supports this outlook, noting daily revenue in the past week ranged between MOP580 million and MOP620 million. Based on this, May’s total GGR is expected to reach between MOP20 billion and MOP21 billion.

Early May saw particularly strong momentum during China’s Labor Day Golden Week. Daily GGR averaged MOP1.02 billion, with visitor arrivals surging 40.7% year over year to 850,000 over five days, setting new post-pandemic tourism records for Macau.