CNY forecasted to post a 4% GGR increase y-o-y

Analysts expect the local gaming industry to generate moderate revenue growth during the Lunar New Year (CNY) Spring Festival.

In their most recent forecast, JP Morgan analysts DS Kim, Mufan Shi, and Selina Li said, “We expect Chinese New Year GGR (Gross Gaming Revenue) to grow moderately at low-to-mid-single digits year over year.”

The same analysts also expect a similar GGR performance in the first half of 2025, followed by a better performance in the second half of the year, which should reach a 7% year-over-year increase.

In general, JP Morgan analysts forecast a growth of 5% for the whole year this year.

They noted that the sector’s performance during the current month contributed to this forecast. As of last Sunday (January 19), the industry should have generated about MOP12.1 billion, representing a daily GGR of about MOP636.8 million.

With the arrival of CNY, a traditional high season for Macau, the daily average is likely to increase, particularly during the eight days of the Spring Festival, which starts on January 28 and lasts until February 4.

If the forecast is confirmed, January should post a result slightly above the MOP20 billion monthly line drawn by the government in its annual estimates of MOP240 billion for 2025.

Concurrently, analysts from S&P Global also expect GGR growth in Macau to be between 5% and 6% this year.

The forecast puts the performance of mass-market gaming postings between 15% and 20% above the pre-pandemic results. At the same time, the VIP market volume “will likely stay near current low levels unless regulations change,” they remarked.

Despite the promising prospects, S&P analysts warned that the current instability in China’s economy could “impair Macau cash flow and (compromise) improvement.”