Citi: mixed signals ahead of Xi’s visit

Gaming operators are seeing a mixed outlook ahead of President Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit, according to a note from Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau. While they have observed an 8% month-over-month reduction in premium mass baccarat tables, the analysts also report more optimistic signs, including a 26% increase in premium mass player count compared to December 2023.

According to the analysts’ note, premium mass baccarat tables saw an 8% month-over-month reduction in activity. Additionally, the average minimum bet for mass baccarat dropped 4% compared to the same period in 2023, suggesting the Macau gaming industry is experiencing similar declines in both premium mass and mass market activity as it did leading up to President Xi’s 2019 visit.

However, the analysts’ findings also suggest a more optimistic outlook, supported by a 26% increase in premium mass player count in December 2024 compared to the previous year.

“Our survey suggests there are plenty of players in Macau whose gaming appetites seem little affected,” the analysts wrote.

While the average wager per premium mass player declined 8% to HKD20,943 compared to December 2023, the total wager observed increased 17% year-over-year to HKD10.7 million. The number of premium mass players also rose 26% year-over-year to 510.

Citi’s latest observations mirror trends seen in a survey conducted five years earlier, ahead of President Xi’s visit to Macau in 2019. At that time, the average wager per player in the premium mass market segment stood at HKD13,196, down 6% compared to December 2018, and the average minimum bet for mass market baccarat was HKD1,834, down 4% from the prior year.

“We will not be surprised if history repeats itself, and we remain comfortable with our December GGR forecast of MOP18.5 (flat MoM),” the analysts added. Victoria Chan