Gaming | Seeing activity uptick, analysts expect growth in May

Gaming analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein and Nomura are forecasting marginal gross gaming revenue growth of between 2% and 4% for May 2019, after data on the week ending May 26 showed increased activity compared with last year.

Last week recorded an average daily run rate of MOP814 million, according to unofficial channel checks, approximately 5% higher than in May 2018.

Moreover, due to more equal comparisons in the summer months, Sanford C. Bernstein analysts expect the year-on-year growth rates to pick up by June.

“Heading into late May and June, we expect year-on-year comparison to begin easing,” wrote Sanford C. Bernstein’s analysts in a note reviewed by GGRAsia.

“We may see surprise on the upside if VIP rebounds (although not expecting a near-term rebound),” the analysts added. “One area of potential high-end GGR stabilization and renewed strength may come from a recovering credit cycle in China, which may support VIP recovery in the second half.”

Conversely, Citigroup said that gross gaming revenue amounted to approximately MOP22.35 across the first 26 days of the month, and that points to revenue reaching just MOP25 billion by month-end, a 2% year-on-year decline from the MOP25.49 billion in May 2018.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs said it expects Macau to see a delayed VIP recovery in the coming months, as well as a slower mass growth for the rest of 2019. Accordingly, it has revised its 2019 GGR growth forecast downward by 6 percentage points, from 3% to -3% year-on-year. Goldman Sachs expects the recovery in 2020, when gross gaming revenue growth would be about 6% year-on-year.

Accumulated gross gaming revenue stood just shy of 100 billion patacas for the first four months of 2019, according to official data from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, tracking 2.4% lower than in the equivalent four-month period last year. DB