GDP up 11.5%, surpasses pre-pandemic levels

Macau’s economic recovery has reached a significant milestone, with gross domestic product (GDP) expanding 11.5% year-on-year in real terms during the first three quarters of this year.

The city’s overall economic output has now surpassed the pre-pandemic level of MOP300 billion, indicating a resilient path forward despite global economic challenges.

GDP reached 86.3% of the level recorded in the same period of 2019, showcasing the city’s strong rebound, according to data from the Statistics and Census Service (DSEC).

Exports of services, a crucial driver of Macau’s economy, grew 11.4% year-on-year, fueled by a surge in visitor arrivals during the peak summer season.

Gaming services led the way, soaring 28.4%, while other tourism-related services saw a 6.1% drop due to a high comparison base from the previous year, but still managed to grow by nearly 15% compared to the same period in 2019.

Domestic demand also demonstrated resilience, with private consumption expenditure swelling 5.8% year-on-year.

This growth was driven by a rise in residents’ incomes and an improving job market, offsetting the 10.1% year-on-year decline in government final consumption expenditure following the cessation of the livelihood subsidy scheme.

Gross fixed capital formation saw a 9.2% year-on-year increase, as enterprises continued to invest in Macau amid the improving local business environment, particularly in private equipment and construction.

In the third quarter, GDP expanded 4.7% year-on-year in real terms, reflecting an economic output equivalent to 87.3% of its 2019 levels.

Exports of services and domestic demand increased 1.3% and 4.6%, respectively, during this period.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) previously economic growth projections for Macau, estimated for 2024 at 10.6% from the previous 13.9% forecast.

The IMF expected the city’s GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2025, projecting a GDP growth range between 8% and 11% for the full year.

Recently, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) has also adjusted its projections for the local economic outlook, revising the GDP growth forecast for this year to 12.1%, or 89.7% of the 2019 level.

The association cited cooling demand from mainland China as a factor, with visitor arrivals now expected to reach only 85% of the record-breaking 2019 levels in the second half of the year.

Despite these revisions, the MEA remains optimistic about Macau’s economic prospects, noting that eight of the 13 indicators it evaluates have performed strongly. Victoria Chan