Group expects Q3 GDP to soar 130% y-o-y

Considering the extraordinarily weak gross domestic product (GDP) performance in the third quarter of last year, the figure for the third quarter this year may rise 130%, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) said yesterday in a statement.

The pandemic heavily affected last year’s performance in the third quarter due to lockdowns that lowered economic performance. The city has revived “relatively satisfactorily” after the lifting of disease control measures, said the MEA.

The group said the cumulative growth rate for this year’s first three quarters is expected to reach about 90% year-over-year. The current economic performance is about 75% of that in 2019, the MEA said.

The series of festive events in the last three months of the year, which traditionally generate economic vibrancy and vitality, will improve optimism. Therefore, the group has estimated the prosperity index for the last four months will gradually rise to 6.2 points.

The group said that though the city’s economy is recovering more quickly, there are internal and external factors that might affect growth.

Internally, local tourist areas have been highly reinvigorated, but traditional residential districts are struggling. Many small and family-owned businesses have experienced even tougher conditions than in the past three years.

Although the group believes that recently-announced government and casino old district revitalization projects will help struggling small businesses, these businesses should upgrade and modernize their operations.

Recently, Fitch Ratings said it anticipates growth of up to 65% in Macau’s economy this year, driven by sustained recovery in the gaming and tourism sector.

The ratings institution projects economic growth will remain robust at 17% in 2024, with full-year gaming revenue recovering further to almost 80% of its 2019 level.

The August and September indices have been confirmed as 6.2 and 5.9, according to MEA. The weaker September score is attributed to fewer tourists and Typhoon Signal No. 9 being raised at the beginning of the month, which suspended casino operations.

Macau’s casino gaming revenue growth slowed in September, falling to a five-month low as revenues fell slightly to MOP14.9 billion.

Data from the Gaming Inspection, and Coordination Bureau shows gross gaming revenue soared 404.2% year-on-year, albeit from a low base. The numbers fell 13% from the previous month. Revenues were 68% of 2019 pre-Covid levels.