HKZMB not expected to rumble Macau property prices

Realtors on this side of the Pearl River estuary do not believe that the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macau Bridge (HKZMB) will significantly impact local property prices.

The perspective follows a report from the South China Morning Post last month, which cited a real estate agent who suggested that Macau residential property prices could see growth between 5 and 10 percent due to the Bridge. The real estate agent also forecasted a rise in commercial property prices of somewhere between 30 and 50 percent, on the basis of an increase in traffic between the two cities.

According to data from the Statistics and Census Service, residential property price indexes for the peninsula and the islands have been growing at a rate of between 0.5 and 2 percent per month. For the 12 months preceding July 2018, residential prices grew by about 1 percent per month on average.

“Our view is that [local] property prices have a strong inclination [of] going up, but it would be unlikely to see 30 to 50 percent growth in the next two to three years,” said Oliver Tong, associate director for capital markets at Jones Lang LaSalle’s (JLL) Macau branch, when asked to comment on the prediction. “In many ways, the news of the bridge’s opening has already been factored into [Macau] prices.”

The report goes on to suggest that, with the bridge increasing connectivity, the difference in property prices between the two SARs will diminish. This would be a dramatic shift in the market. In some places in Hong Kong, property prices per square foot are as much as three times those in Macau.

“Yes, the two cities [of Hong Kong and Macau] are very close to each other, but we are using completely different engines to drive our economies. The structure of [property] buyers in Hong Kong and Macau are completely different. There are far more international investors in Hong Kong – and they want to be in Hong Kong for the financial, insurance and other major sectors,” said Tong.

In terms of infrastructure connectivity, the actual scope of the impact of the bridge may be considerably smaller, given the very restricted number of vehicles that will be permitted to drive on the bridge.

Last month, the Times interviewed realtors Suzanne Watkinson and Alex Cheng of Ambiente Properties who said they did not expect the bridge to have a significant impact, given the probable marginal improvement in connectivity.

“The tragedy in my mind was that there is not going to be a train,” said Watkinson on the matter. “That would really have given connectivity between the areas and that might have had an impact on the property market.”

In its 2017 mid-year property review, the Macau branch of JLL suggested that the only effect of the HKZMB would be for Macau’s property market “to remain healthy and stable.” DB