Pedestrians walk past tents and banners outside the Central Government Offices in Hong Kong
At the height of Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests, 24-year-old Alex Chow told a 100,000-strong crowd the demonstrations’ student leaders would fight until China dropped plans to curb democracy in the city. Now with Hong Kong poised to decide its political future, his organization is in disarray.
Less than six months after the end of the protests that briefly made the Hong Kong Federation of Students the most popular political force in the city, the failure to win concessions and differences over how best to challenge China has led the coalition to unravel. Half of its eight university members have abandoned the federation.
The implosion of the student bloc comes as lawmakers prepare for a June vote on a plan allowing China to effectively vet candidates for the first direct election of the city’s chief executive in 2017 – a proposal that sparked the 79-day protest. The disunity of the students means it would be more difficult to reignite the protests and present popular opposition if the China-backed plan passes.
“Of course the split has had a negative impact on our campaign,” said HKFS secretary-general Nathan Law, one of the protest leaders. “But society’s mood is that they don’t have trust and confidence in our organization, so we will try and reflect and change. My priority will be on internal issues this term.”
The divisions will be on display Thursday when Hong Kong people commemorate the anniversary of China’s 1989 deadly crackdown against pro-democracy demonstrators in Tiananmen Square. Differences among the student groups over whether to also campaign for democracy on the mainland or limit their focus to Hong Kong led some of the university groups to organize a breakaway Tiananmen ceremony.
The government is stepping up its campaign to boost public support for the plan. Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying’s administration is spending HK$5 million (USD645,000) on public meetings, television ads, and posters blanketing trains and buses.
“For the moment, the debate about the package seems to be taking place through the media and among legislators, rather than on the streets, where it was last autumn,” said Tim Summers, senior consulting fellow on Asia at Chatham House.
Leung has said he needs just four votes from pro-democracy lawmakers to secure passage, and public opinion is leaning his way. The latest poll by a joint-project of three of the city’s biggest universities showed 45 percent in favor to 36 percent opposed.
For the time being, the pan-democrats are closing ranks. At a four-hour meeting between lawmakers and officials from Beijing on May 31 it was clear “that the central government is not going to yield one iota,” said Civic Party leader Alan Leong. The 27 pan-democrats have “no choice” but to vote against the plan.
The voting plan will be presented to the legislature on June 17 and the vote could happen on the same day. More than 7,000 police will be deployed during the vote to prevent any new occupation, and they will be prepared to use tear gas and pepper spray if any demonstrations turn violent, the South China Morning Post reported yesterday, citing unidentified police officers.
The rise and fall of the student movement reflects deeper divisions over how much democracy is needed in the former British colony that has never elected its leader. When the U.K. relinquished control in 1997, China pledged to respect Hong Kong’s autonomy under a “one country, two systems” approach and proposed eventually permitting elections.
If the China-backed plan fails, the chief executive will continue to be selected by a committee of 1,200 business, political and social elite, which has hewed to Beijing’s interests. The new plan allows Hong Kong people to elect the chief executive, but insists candidates be chosen by a similar committee, not voters.
Before the protests, the student federation adopted more grassroots tactics, spending two years organizing debates, non-binding referendums and assemblies to promote free elections. They worked with Scholarism, a group of mainly high school students that successfully campaigned against a China-backed education overhaul in 2012.
It was the arrest of the federation’s then secretary-general Chow, his deputy Lester Shum and Scholarism’s 18-year old leader Joshua Wong that ignited the protests. After a week-long school boycott to protest the plan, the three were detained on Sept. 26 after trying to break into a government building. That prompted tens of thousands to flood the streets in support, beginning the occupation of city streets.
The students remained the lifeblood of the demonstrations, organizing tent cities, food distribution, first-aid stations and even study halls, and confronting police at the barricades. While they took pains to proclaim theirs a leaderless movement, many protesters took their cues from the students’ nightly speeches and Facebook updates.
As the protests dragged on without concessions from China the movement began to fracture, with some leaders calling for escalation and others restraint. Within weeks after the final protesters were cleared, undergraduate students at HKU voted to depart the group. Three other universities followed.
“It’s frustrating for Hong Kong people to see the students having so many differences,” Chow said. “But it’s also an opportunity to think hard on how students can continue to lead social movements.”
While the student federation is regrouping, its longtime partner Scholarism remains active. Joshua Wong’s group has threatened to reignite protests should pro-democratic lawmakers fail to block the plan. Other groups are also emerging to fill the void left by the federation.
Still, now “that the students have split into two camps, even though they still share a similar stance on democracy, it’s much harder for them to consolidate,” said Lee Cheuk-yan, lawmaker and chairman of the Labour Party. “We used to have all the students under the same roof and now we have so many different groups. It’s become quite blurred.” Natasha Khan and Fion Li, Bloomberg
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