IMF: Macau has highest GDP growth rate until 2024

Macau has the highest growth rate projection for 2023 and 2024 among advanced economies listed by the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO).

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report said Macau is expected to grow 74.4% this year and at a slower rate of 27.2% in 2024, with the leading growth rate among advanced economies in Asia including Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.

The rebound comes after the economy plunged 26.8% in 2022 amid the city’s strict border regulations, halting international tourism arrivals from 2020.

Last year, the IMF warned that Macau SAR’s economic recovery is expected to continue, but that it will take time before the economy fully regains its losses from the pandemic.

After a 54% decline in GDP in 2020, the economy expanded by 19% in 2021, supported by the partial recovery of the gaming sector.

In terms of unemployment, the IMF projects a 2.8% and 2.9% unemployment rate in both 2023 and 2024 respectively.

The report released earlier this month states the IMF is warning of the world economy losing momentum in the face of higher interest rates, the ongoing war in Ukraine and widening geopolitical rifts.

The IMF forecasted global economic growth to slow to 2.9% in 2024 from an expected 3% this year.

The forecast for next year is down from the 3% it predicted back in July.

“We see a global economy that is limping along,” IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas previously told reporters ahead of the IMF and World Bank’s fall meetings in Marrakech, Morocco, as cited in media reports.

The IMF expectation of 3% growth this year is down from 3.5% in 2022 but unchanged from its July projections. 

Earlier this month, Fitch Ratings anticipated growth of up to 65% in Macau’s economy this year, driven by sustained recovery in the gaming and tourism sector.

In its recent report, the firm said the strong growth comes amid China’s faltering economy – which adds to worries over surging youth unemployment and a weak property sector.

“We project economic growth will remain robust at 17% in 2024, with full-year gaming revenue recovering further to almost 80% of its 2019 level,” said Fitch Ratings.

Local government data, meanwhile, shows that for the first half of 2023, GDP grew 71.5% year-on-year in real terms, and Macau’s overall economic output returned to 71% of its level in the same period of 2019.

The improving economic sentiment and employment environment facilitated an increase in private consumption activities.