Investment firm predicts mass GGR to reach 40% pre-pandemic levels in Q4

UBS analyst Angus Chan is estimating that the city’s mass gross gaming revenue (GGR) will reach 40% of pre-pandemic levels in the fourth quarter.

With optimism, the analyst forecast the figure may increase to 70% next year, and then jump to 105% in 2024. 

“Importantly, we believe the mobility relaxation reflects Beijing’s policy support for Macau’s economy,” he writes, as cited in Dow Jones Institutional News.

Brokerages and analysts have been giving their fresh estimates for the gaming sector following announcements of group visa reinstatements which may be in place by the end of October.

For brokerage BofA Securities, the group expects that the sector can fully recover in early 2023, citing the long-awaited announcement of group travel resumption, which is expected to bring an end to the tourism drought that has negatively impacted the economy.

Such a forecast was more optimistic than that of Morgan Stanley, who observed that the recovery of the local gaming sector may only be seen by 2024.

These comments echo similar sentiments issued by industry analysts, as the spending power of group travelers is weaker than that of those holding individual visit scheme (IVS) visas.

The gaming sector has long been in turmoil as it has been affected by the strict restrictions in place in the SAR as the city adheres to Beijing’s zero-Covid policy. 

The largest outbreak Macau has recorded in mid-June to July saw 12 days of casinos shutting down, leading to the lowest GGR in decades as revenues plunged to MOP398 million, down 95% year-on-year. 

The gaming sector is also facing the largest gaming law overhaul yet while they await their proposals to be reviewed, which will determine whether they acquire another concession for the next 10 years.