From left: Eric Sautedé, Agnes Lam and Sérgio de Almeida Correia
Taking into account the profile of the typical Macau voter – a mainland-born woman aged between 50 and 64 years old – the Times questioned several experts about the impact of the voter profile on the September 17 election.
After analyzing the official data, French political scientist and commentator Eric Sautedé stated that “clearly there will be a lot less young people among the registered voters”, adding that those below the age of 30 will constitute approximately 16 percent of the electorate compared to almost 19 percent in 2013.
“Then you have a lot more of [voters above the age of] 60,” he continued. These make up 27.5 percent of the latest turnout, compared to 21.6 percent in the previous election.
“Older people are usually more conservative [in their vote] and in Macau they fall prey to all the traditional associations that ‘buy loyalty’ all year long,” he added.
There are also far fewer voters between the ages of 45 and 55 in these elections. They formed more than 25 percent in the 2013 election, compared to 21 percent this year.
Sautedé noted that Macau has 12,000 more women than men and added that women’s votes traditionally skew more conservative, especially those of older women.
The political scientist voiced the opinion that associations’ ability to mobilize voters would ultimately make the difference.
“Pro-government associations, both traditional and recent ones, have been heavily subsidized in the past four years, and we [have] already seen that this was crucial in the 2013 elections when compared to 2009; especially regarding the three seats of Chan Meng Kam, which is a ‘flawless’ example of patron-client relations optimized for electoral purposes.”
On the list splitting, Sautedé said: “In the case of Chan Meng Kam, they will most probably go for two lists and optimize their estimated vote bank by trying to put four legislators in the house.”
Chan’s newcomer, Fujian-born Kyan Su Lone, has been groomed for months and is active in all of Chan’s affiliated associations. Kyan is a Xiamen CPPCC member for Macau who has lived in the region since 2001 and, Sautedé added, has been seen campaigning side-by-side with Chan.
As for the chances of the New Macau Association (ANM), Sautedé considers these “tough, because they can only maximize if their two lists work well together. My guess is that a certain number of people are fed up with the status quo and have seen the excesses and hypocrisy of all the pro-business legislators. Ng Kuok Cheong – Au Kam Sam and Chan Wai Chi-Sulu Sou’s tickets could work fine if they finally decided to ‘engineer’ the vote by using a strategic way to evenly split their potential voters.”
Sautedé added that Sou’s status as one the main organizers of the May 2014 demonstrations has won him a lot of respect among young people.
When asked about Pereira Coutinho, Sautedé said, “Having young Jorge Neto Valente as number two on Melinda Chan’s list will not help, but then Melinda appeals to a very different electorate.”
He said the addition to Chan’s list “will certainly not deprive Coutinho [of] his seat [although it] might make [New Hope] lose his second seat as Leong Veng Chai was the least voted for back in 2013 and somehow came as a surprise.”
Echoing Sautedé’s stance that larger groups tend to vote “conservatively” was local lawyer Sérgio de Almeida Correia, who said that it is obvious that many people are not used to participating in the system and may have spent “little time [in] Macau when compared to their age and lack of experience in political participation.”
This, Correia said, leads older voters to favor people they know or with whom they can find some sort of connection.
“We can’t do much about this [voter profile]; in fact, the granting of permanent resident status by the authorities can be even be used as a triage element,” he added.
“This is one of the problems of countries and regions where an engrained culture of electoral participation doesn’t exist. This [makes] people more permeable to the influence of formal and informal powers, but it isn’t exclusive to Macau. It happens pretty much everywhere, even in countries with a much more developed political system.”
“I don’t think this is the bigger issue but it is clear that it does not contribute to a better enlightenment of the people or to more conscientious participation […] What is desirable is that people go to the polling stations to vote in a way that is perfectly conscious and clear,” he said.
Correia finds associations’ participation in indirect suffrage “anachronistic” and is of the view that it “doesn’t make much sense” but said he understands the historical context.
The process of list splitting, he said, “can be in fact a strategy from the stronger lists to avoid other lists to elect members. Sometimes to run more than one list is not just to elect more members, but just to split votes in a way that others can’t get enough for a mandate.”
Scholar Agnes Lam weighed in on the topic of the numerous older women who form the bulk of the voting pool, remarking that, “this was also the very successful work [of] several local associations and organizations that managed to engage the [elderly] population to become voters.”
She said it was natural for such individuals to vote for their community leaders.
Lam added that there are several generations of what could be considered ‘young people’, and named at least three subgroups in this age range.
In Lam’s opinion, the lack of interest in voting and active participation in the elections is due to different reasons. Some belong to a group which has benefited economically under the current establishment, she said, describing them as “very satisfied and in a more stable situation [so] they don’t feel the urge to participate.
For most youngsters, the problem might reside in the “lack of hope in changing anything. They feel there is no chance [in this system] that allows their votes to change anything. They feel their votes aren’t useful.”
Lam added that the stronger fields’ strategy of splitting and running two lists “could be the way of gathering more votes [and electing more lawmakers] by breaking into smaller groups which can approach topics that are [closer] to the voters’ hearts.”
There were likely other reasons, she concluded, but did not elaborate. RM
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