Market share of gaming operators expected to shift throughout FY24/25

The market share among Macau’s gaming operators is expected to realign throughout the fiscal years 2024 and 2025, according to a recent analysis by Seaport Research Partners.

The institution reported that anticipated second-quarter results for operators are unlikely to reveal major surprises. However, the competitive dynamics within the industry are set to evolve as operators adapt to shifting market conditions.

Vitaly Umansky, a senior analyst at Seaport, highlighted several key factors influencing the Macau gaming sector. He noted that operating costs, player reinvestment strategies, and the impacts of recent regulations on money flow will play crucial roles in shaping the industry’s trajectory. “The key questions for the Macau industry will be around operating costs, player reinvestment, July trends, and August outlook,” said the analyst.

Stated in a Monday memorandum, Umansky indicated that although July began weak, there has been a noticeable uptick, leading to expectations of a slight increase in gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the third quarter compared to the second. GGR in June stood at 17,69 compared to 2023’s figure of 15,207, an increase of +16.4%.

Looking ahead, Umansky forecasts that GGR for the third quarter will reach over 80.5% of the same period in 2019, with a projected sequential increase of 5.5% in the fourth quarter. Overall, GGR is expected to rise by 26% in 2024 and then by 10% in 2025.

Of the six operators, Melco, Wynn, and Galaxy are highlighted as top picks for the next three to six months. MGM China is projected to experience a decline in market share, dropping to the mid-15% range by the end of 2024.

This shift is attributed to increased competition due to other operators having adopted more advanced gaming technologies. Conversely, Galaxy is anticipated to regain market share, potentially rising to over 19% by 2025, due to a recovery in base mass gaming.

Sands China is also expected to strengthen its position, with its GGR market share projected to increase to over 25% in 2025, bolstered by contributions from its Londoner property. Meanwhile, Wynn Macau, which has seen a slight recovery, is forecast to stabilize in the mid-13% range due to challenges in attracting premium mass players.

Operator SJM is expected to see modest market share gains this year; however, it is anticipated to lose ground in 2025 as competition intensifies. Analysts emphasize the need for SJM to expedite the ramp-up of its new Cotai property, Grand Lisboa Palace, so as to remain competitive. Nadia Shaw