Morgan Stanley: 2022 GGR to be under MOP45b

Brokerage firm Morgan Stanley has amended its forecast for the city’s gaming sector in 2022 to just under MOP44.93 billion.

Analysts Praveen Choudhary and Gareth Leung based the forecast on their predictions that travel restrictions between Macau and the mainland will linger until the first quarter of 2023.

This is despite group tour visas and e-visas that are slated to resume from late October to early November. 

The fresh forecast represents only about 15% of the 2019 figures.

However, the firm is optimistic that the casino sector will record revenues of some MOP124.29 billion, which amount to approximately 43% of 2019 levels.

Separately, Citibank has noted that the gaming revenues for the first 23 days of the month have amounted to some MOP3 billion – a figure that is up 17% from the week prior. 

According to the bank, the slow recovery comes amid travel restrictions as the mainland is recording a surge in Covid-19 cases, leading to district lockdowns, which have in turn hampered travel. 

Citbank noted that it will maintain, however, its estimate of MOP4 billion of gaming revenues this month.

September has been another bleak month for the city’s casinos as revenues plunged 49.6% year-on-year to MOP2.96 billion, another blow to the sector as China’s lockdown continues across the country. 

Although September’s revenue rose 35% from the previous month, the base in August was very low as the sector suffered in the wake of the travel halt caused by the city’s largest outbreak in mid-
June to July.