November GGR above MOP21 billion, accumulated growth at 8.6%

November closed with gross gaming revenue (GGR) reaching MOP21.088 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% compared to 2024.

November results from local casinos also account for an accumulated GGR of MOP226.515 billion in the first 11 months.

This figure, just short of the full-year GGR results for 2024, represents a year-over-year increase of 8.6%.

With another result well over MOP20 billion, November was the eighth month of this year in which the GGR results exceeded the average estimation from the government under Sam Hou Fai, which was set at an average of MOP19 billion per month, or MOP228 billion for the whole year.

At the moment, with just one month to go until the end of the year, the monthly GGR average is holding steady at MOP20.592 billion. This figure is also almost 3% higher than the forecast made late last year by the departing government of Ho Iat Seng, which predicted the 2025 GGR to be MOP240 billion for the year, or MOP20 billion per month.

Missing from Sam Hou Fai’s Policy Address for 2026, the forecast for GGR in 2026 was finally debated last week during the 2026 Budget discussion at the Legislative Assembly, with several lawmakers criticizing the government’s MOP236 billion projection as “too conservative” and “disconnected from reality.”

At the time, lawmaker Kevin Ho went further in these criticisms, remarking that such a forecast signals a decline in the performance of the gaming industry and that, rather than being too conservative, it can send the wrong message to investors by revealing a pessimistic view of the local economy for the upcoming year.

The government forecast also differs from that of market analysts, with Morgan Stanley describing the gaming industry’s outlook as positive in a memo released this week. The private bank noted that monthly GGR continues to grow over 10% year over year, forecasting a further 16% rise through April 2026.

A similar analysis was presented by Citibank, which said 2025 might close around MOP248.6 billion, representing 10% year-on-year growth, and forecast 2026 GGR to grow between 5% and 7% to MOP265.5 billion.

Last week, investment bank CLSA added to the chorus of those disagreeing with the government forecast, upgrading its 2026 GGR forecast to MOP259.11 billion.

CLSA analysts predict that GGR will rise by 5% year-on-year next year, with particular focus on the second half, when, they claim, gains will be more notable.