Severo Portela
It is difficult to imagine a day in Macau without gaming. The importance of the casino business is such that nobody has the luxury to live in ignorance, especially, in times of serious adjustment. Daiwa analysts, an accurate bunch both in form and in matter, predict an aggregate 2015 plunge of 34%, and, we eagerly quote, take the V-shaped gaming recovery as “unlikely”. They are being conservative.
Galaxy announced a second-quarter earnings drop of 46% on higher operation costs from its new resorts. Sands China is requesting an extension to complete its Parisian. Macau Studio City cannot do anything but open its doors on the 27th of October and hopes to get 400 additional tables. We could randomly bring other bits of day-to-day casino life, but there’s little use.
Instead, we should focus on the on-going mid-term review of Macau’s gaming operations to be completed at the end of September. First of all, we have to underline that by presenting himself before the Legislative Assembly to announce a presupposed study on the casino sector, Chui Sai On took into his own hands the development of the industry. Secondly, we do have to pinpoint that the study will be open to the public, since it has “first draft” as a disclaimer. Thirdly, the mid-term review as presented by the CE gives us some tips to envisage the big picture. The review, which some insist will link directly to a renewal of the casino concessions, will focus on eight elements, including the impact of gaming on the Macau economy. Add to that small and medium enterprises, society and the development of gaming and non-gaming activities.
However, going to the end of the communication – not in small print, but with all the political weight of the MSAR Chief Executive – Chui Sai On candidly voiced that the “review will also study if the current contracts with the operators have been fulfilled and if they are assuming their social responsibilities”. This is where the waters part ways.
For those who share the idea above mentioned of a direct link between the mid-term review and the renewal of the gaming concessions and gaming sub-concessions, the said review seems to be secondary to the legal framework. Meaning that no matter what is shown to the public eye, at the end of the day everything related with the renewal depends on the legal groundwork established in the year 2000. They would be wrong.
The new rationale demands a shift from a regulatory focus to economic, social and, in the end, political considerations. That is to say the idea is to produce an overview of gambling in the SAR, now and now and into the immediate future (if 10 years qualifies as the immediate future).”
The new approach to the question goes like this: evaluation, compromise-based, not rule-endowed, solutions. Eventually, post-hoc, we will have to confront any legal questions arising from each of the solutions through the Law.
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