São Tomé and Príncipe | Breakaway from Taiwan paves way to Forum Macau

São Tomé and Príncipe has announced that it will sever formal relations with Taiwan in favor of abiding by the mainland’s “One-China” policy, in what has become the latest diplomatic rebuff to the island-state.

The move is expected to pave the way for the African nation to join the Forum for Economic and Trade Co-operation between China and Portuguese-speaking Countries (Forum Macau).

São Tomé and Príncipe is the only Portuguese-speaking country that has been excluded from active participation in Forum Macau (despite being permitted as an observer) on the basis of its former recognition of Taiwan.

Taiwan, which receives diplomatic recognition from less than two-dozen countries as of today, lost another ally this week after São Tomé and Príncipe revoked its formal ties. The decision comes less than a year after Beijing resumed relations with the African country of Gambia which had formally severed its ties to Taiwan in 2013.

The Chinese foreign ministry has welcomed the decision and commended the African nation for reverting to “the correct path of the ‘One-China’ principle.”

However, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen condemned Beijing’s “diplomatic suppression,” writing that “such conduct will not help the long-term development of cross-Strait relations. Deliberately ignoring and dwarfing Taiwan in the international arena will only make [the] Taiwanese feel humiliated and infuriated.”

The government of São Tomé and Príncipe did not specify a reason behind the sudden announcement, but Taiwan’s foreign minister David Lee accredited the policy shift to increasing financial demands in the relationship between the two states. The West African nation, like most of the island’s remaining friends, is a recipient of economic aid, with the total sum over the last 19 years amounting to around USD200 million.

The People’s Republic of China and Taiwan have engaged in a decades-long battle to win over friends by enticing them through financial assistance. As China’s economic might has grown, Taiwan has found it increasingly difficult to compete.

Analysts speculate that Vatican City, Taiwan’s only source of diplomatic recognition on the European continent, could be next to reverse its position on the island given the already increased efforts of Beijing to woo the walled enclave over.

However, Taiwan’s deputy foreign minister, Javier Hou, said that that outcome is not yet decided.

“The Holy See is different. It’s not a secular state, and the pontiff is the supreme leader. So no problems exist like dollar assistance,” he said, as cited by South China Morning Post. “At least in the short term, the Holy See will not sever ties with Taiwan.”

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Souring relations

Cross-Strait relations between Taiwan and mainland China have ominously soured over the course of 2016. Upon assuming office in May, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen upset China when she refused to endorse the “1992 Consensus” on the “One-China” principle. The backlash from Beijing quickly saw several diplomatic channels of communication between the two governments unilaterally ended, while at the same time China exerted significant pressure to further alienate Taiwan from international organizations. Then, earlier this month, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump took a phone call from Tsai in an unusual breach of protocol. The move provoked Beijing, which responded by reiterating its willingness to use force to reunite what China considers to be a breakaway province.