UM academic expects 2023 GGR to reach MOP180b

A University of Macau (UM) academic has estimated this year’s gross gambling revenue (GGR) will reach MOP180 billion, higher than the government’s expectation of MOP130 billion.

The university’s Macau Research Centre yesterday organized a panel discussion on this year’s policy address, expected to be released in November. Agnes Lam, director of the center, coordinated the discussion..

During his speech, Davis Fong Ka Chio, director of the Institute for the Study of Commercial Gaming (ISCG), said the industry had estimated that in October conditions will return to 2019 levels. It was also expected the city’s GGR will rise to between MOP180 and MOP190 billion this year, despite the slower recovery in the junket market. He said this figure implies a recovery surpassing previous expectations. Moreover, Fong also forecast next year’s GGR would exceed MOP200 billion.

Despite his optimism, he expects the government will still have a budget deficit next year, because there are a series of public projects and infrastructure beginning construction next year, implying a growing expenditure.

He also suggested the government plan early on striking a balance between tourists’ experience and residents’ quality of life during the upcoming Oct. 1 “Golden Week,” as all hotel rooms will likely be filled.

Lam, meanwhile, suggested the government invest more in mental healthcare and traffic enhancement. She said society has “experienced a roller-coaster ride” in the past three years, and improvements in psychological wellbeing are crucially needed.

The city’s GGR continued to strengthen in July, returning to about 68% of pre-pandemic levels, hitting a post-pandemic high.

Revenues last month increased MOP16.7 billion, a surge of over 4,000%, albeit from a low base as casinos shut for almost two weeks in July last year.

The first seven months of 2023 saw gaming operators make revenues of MOP96.80 billion, an increase of 263% year-on-year.

The figures suggest that the city can accumulate MOP130 billion for this year, a figure initially forecasted by the government.

Meanwhile, analysts from JP Morgan are forecasting that August will break the July’s revenue record.

It also noted that premium mass GGR have probably recovered to “100% plus” of pre-pandemic levels.

Chief Executive Ho Iat Seng said earlier this month that gaming revenues may hit MOP200 billion next year.