Kapok | Chui II and beyond

Eric Sautedé

Now is the time when people like me get asked by journalists what to expect from the policy address to be delivered by the Chief Executive on March 23. Usually, this general policy speech and the subsequent details offered by the secretaries on their respective portfolios take place in November. The rationale of the timing has to do with the new session of the legislature having just started, in mid-October, and because the government’s budget for the coming fiscal year has to be discussed and voted upon. Mind you, Mr Chui did make an appearance in the Assembly last November to review the past year’s policies and “achievements”, and the budget for 2015 had already been passed on November 18 in plenary session with expected revenues of about MOP152 billion and spending of roughly MOP52 billion—of course, this will be revised and amended along the way. Yet, it is clear that despite the headlines about the sorry state of the economy — or “the new normal” — the government is going to spend “only” a third of its revenues. So why March? Easy: because of Chui II!
When this was announced in October by Mr Chui himself, I personally had great difficulties believing the stated logic: being sworn in in December for a new mandate, Mr Chui was arguing that he could only make announcements after that, and choosing a date late in March was a way to put the government’s work in line with the convening of the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference — a bit debatable if one truly believes in the “two systems”, but makes sense within the new patriotic environment we’re in. Mr Chui had already done the same back in March 2010, but then he was taking over from Edmund Ho. Looking back at 2004, Mr Ho did not shy away from the November custom, and thus it is true that Ho II looked a lot like Ho I, but only worse, and not simply because of the Ao Man Long scandal. But why March 2015? Mr Chui had ran unopposed and had just been “re-elected” by 95% of his small circle of supporters. At the time, speculation was rife regarding possible changes in government, but only Francis Tam, Florinda Chan and, maybe, Lau Si Io were thought to be on their way out. Moreover, competence had nothing to do with it — except in the case of Mr Lo, if the construction industry is to be trusted — and changes were somehow believed to be rather cosmetic, rather like musical chairs. On the side of the “opposition”, the picture looked gloomy: the New Macau Association (ANM) had lost one seat in the Assembly the year before, losing their historic position as the highest vote getter in such elections, and ANM’s young Turks had just been branded “enemies of the state” for organizing a supposedly “illegal” referendum with close to 9,000 people openly advocating universal suffrage to elect the Chief Executive…
Then came the Umbrella Movement in Hong Kong, the open-speculations about a whole new government in Macao, the announcement of a total revamping of all but one senior official on December 2, and to crown it all the visit by Xi Jinping reminding Macao that diversification was not a slogan anymore and this for the sake of the whole country. Later on, newly appointed secretaries started to be more vocal, reaching out to a new range of stakeholders. Promises were made. Critical assessments were vented. Heads, at coordinator, deputy-director and director levels started to roll. Despite the gambling profit nosedive, social and community-connected issues finally topped the list of priorities. For me, there is no doubt that the massive demonstrations of May played a crucial role, especially because Macao is endowed with First World revenues and Third World services: in China, the authorities have read Tocqueville’s “L’Ancien régime et la revolution”! On the 23rd, we will hear about a more prospective 5-year vision and a more coherent and scientifically grounded form of governance. What will be missing though is a way for consultative bodies, special committees and the like, to become really meaningful.