Analysts see minor revenue recovery starting September

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) of Macau should begin to recover from September amid Beijing’s resumption of mainland travel permits to Macau, at least one analyst has said, with another expecting a “swift recovery” when all travel restrictions are lifted.
The comments appeared in a report by Bloomberg. The monthly GGR of the city has fallen for seven months in a row, compared with last year, with year-on-year falls as steep at 97% in some months.
The analysts told the news outlet that they expect Macau to see another year-on-year decrease of over 90% in August. Their median estimate is 93%, spanning from the lowest decline of 84% to the highest of 95%. The actual result is due to be released today.
They estimate this year’s VIP gambling revenue will see an aggregate fall of 68% in year-on-year terms, implying some recovery in the final quarter.
Two among the group of analysts interviewed by Bloomberg expressed particular optimism over Macau’s attractiveness to players from the mainland. George Choi from Citigroup expects a bounce to the pre-Covid-19 level once all quarantine and travel restrictions are lifted. He even estimates GGR in 2021 will see a 140% rise compared to this year.
Bloomberg quoted him as saying that he believes social distancing requirement will not strongly impact GGR, “provided that the six concessionaires evenly distribute players across tables.”
Although Vitaly Umansky from Sanford C Bernstein estimates that GGR will start increasing from September, he added that the recovery also relies strongly on tourists’ confidence in Macau, the number of flights to Macau, as well as Hong Kong allowing travel to Macau.
In contrast, Kenneth Fong from Credit Suisse pointed out that two factors may become the undercurrent in Macau’s GGR recovery: Beijing’s tightening capital outflow and Macau’s lack of fluidity.