Canada-US | Pro-refugee Trudeau set to bite his tongue on visit to Washington

Justin Trudeau PM, Canada

More than two decades ago, with Donald Trump already atop a real-estate empire, a young Justin Trudeau set out to explore the world.

He toured Europe and Africa with friends, hiding their beer from customs agents before boarding the Trans-Siberian railway to China. On the train, he sketched, read “War and Peace” and gazed at the remnants of the Soviet Union. It was a defining trip, he’d later write, that left him praising both diversity and compromise.

Both values will be tested today. The now-45-year-old Canadian prime minister – hailed by Joe Biden as one of the last champions of liberalism – heads to Washington for his first meeting with Trump, 70, whose bellicose statements and immigration restrictions reveal a deep gulf between the two leaders. They will meet privately at the Oval Office, attend a roundtable with women executives and a hold a joint press conference at 2 p.m.

But U.S. liberals hoping for Trudeau to emerge as Trump’s foil shouldn’t hold their breath. He’s already bit his tongue and focused almost exclusively on an economic relationship that accounts for three-quarters of Canada’s exports. The White House visit will test just how far Trudeau can go to woo the president and preserve trade without selling out his core values.

“We both got elected on commitments to strengthen the middle class, and support those working hard to join it,” Trudeau said last week. “And that’s exactly what we’re going to be focused on.”

He has little choice. Nearly two-thirds of all Canadian trade is with the U.S., the highest ratio of Group of 20 nations and quadruple all but Mexico. Almost all of Canada’s oil goes to the U.S. and most of the country’s manufacturing is geared toward meeting U.S. demand. Americans hold CAD2.3 trillion (USD1.8 trillion) in Canadian assets, almost exactly the same amount held by Canadians in the U.S.

A Deutsche Bank AG report this month that looked at the potential impact of Trump policies on all the U.S.’s major partners found Canada would be among the hardest hit, forcing the country to cede about $70 billion in trade to the U.S.

Till now, Trudeau’s strategy has been to avoid becoming what his ambassador to the U.S. called “ collateral damage” in a trade war they consider to be largely aimed at Mexico. 

Three senior emissaries – Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan – laid the groundwork for Trudeau’s visit with their own trips last week to preach Canadian trade. Freeland has coined the lawmaker-by- lawmaker approach “granular diplomacy” and the trio, along with two other ministers, will join Trudeau at the White House to hammer home their message.

Trudeau and his team will also meet House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell in the afternoon. Bloomberg