Fitch forecasts economic resurgence until 2025

Macau is experiencing a notable economic resurgence, bolstered by its robust public and external finances.

Fitch Ratings Inc. has projected solid economic expansion in 2024 and 2025, projecting the city’s gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 15% year-on-year for this year, followed by an 8% increase in 2025.

This optimistic outlook is largely fueled by broader economic growth and new policies aimed at stimulating visitor numbers.

“This will be supported by the ongoing revival in the gaming tourism sector, expanded handling capacity and favorable policy initiatives,” said analysts George Xu and Jeremy Zook.

Recent policy updates have introduced new visa rules that allow eligible mainland travelers to participate in multiple group tours between Macau and Hengqin.

Moreover, mainland residents holding business visas can now enjoy extended stays of up to 14 days, effectively doubling the previous one-week limit.

These changes are expected to significantly enhance accessibility for tourists and contribute to the region’s economic revival, according to the institution.

Meanwhile, the gaming sector is showing signs of robust recovery, with gross gaming revenue soaring 31% year-on-year to approximately MOP170 billion in the first nine months of 2024.

This figure represents a return to 77% of pre-pandemic levels.

Particularly during the recent week-long National Day holidays, Macau saw a surge in tourist arrivals, surpassing daily averages recorded in the same period of 2019.

The positive trends extend to the job market as well.

Employment numbers in the recreational, cultural, gaming, and other service sectors have rebounded to 85% of 2019 levels by the first half of 2024.

The institution has reaffirmed Macau’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating (IDR) at ‘AA’ with a stable outlook.

In a memo released earlier this week, Fitch analysts said Macau’s ratings reflect its exceptionally strong public and external finances, along with a commitment to fiscal prudence, even during periods of economic fluctuation and gaming revenue challenges.

“Strong year-to-date gaming tax revenue aligns with our projection that the budget will revert to a surplus of 3.8% in 2024,” the analysts said.

Additionally, fiscal reserves have shown significant recovery, increasing from MOP558 billion at the end of 2022 to over MOP600 billion by the end of the first half of 2024. This amount is equivalent to 6.5 times the projected expenditure.