Gaming | April GGR growth likely to top 20 percent

Monthly gross gaming revenue in MOP millions according to figures provided by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau

Analysts say they are expecting a healthy posting for April’s gross gaming revenues, which are due to be announced today by the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. According to the latest predictions, April’s year-on-year growth is likely to top 20 percent.

April is often the weakest among the first four months of the year. However, should it fall broadly in line with the first three months – as it has for the past four years – gross gaming revenues ranging between MOP22 billion and MOP24 billion are expected. This would mark an increase by approximately 10 to 20 percent over the MOP20.16 billion recorded in the same month last year – and analysts are leaning toward the upper bound of the range.

Gross gaming revenues in the first quarter of 2018 continued to demonstrate broad strength in the economic recovery with all the major market components – VIP, premium mass and mass – on the rise.

Year-to-date revenues for the first quarter of 2018 stood at just over MOP76.5 billion, up 20.5 percent from the same quarter in 2017, but still down about a quarter from the gaming peak in the first three months of 2014.

Analysts are in general consensus that the year-to-date growth will hold steady with the April results.

JP Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) said that the fact growth was being propelled by a “genuine demand recovery” and not “artificially pulled forward” by promotional activities was a good sign. The brokerage firm is expecting “a strong +21 percent growth year-on-year” for April.

Earlier this month, rival firm Nomura said it anticipated year- on-year growth of between 18 to 22 percent. Sanford C. Bernstein narrowed their prediction to between 20 percent and 21 percent, but said that there was a potential for “surprise on the upside.”

The figures reflect strength in the Macau gaming sector, in that they demonstrate consistent year-on-year growth despite a “seasonal slowdown” ahead of the Labor Day holiday weekend from April 29 until today.

Morgan Stanley indicated in a recent report that hotel booking rates for the Labor Day weekend were stronger than during the holiday last year. The report noted that Wynn’s peninsula operations were witnessing full occupancy for their standard rooms nearly two weeks ahead of the Labor Day weekend, and that StarWorld, Ritz Carlton and JW Marriott were almost fully booked for the April 27 to May 5 period.

It remains to be seen how the expected increase in visitors and spend on gaming activities during the holiday period will be distributed between the months of April and May.