Light Rapid Transit | Gov’t admits no idea of passenger numbers, journey fares

With the Taipa Line of the Macau Light Rapid Transit (LRT) project planned for a 2019 launch, local transport authorities have admitted that they have no estimates for ticket fares, nor do they have projections for the number of passengers expected to use the service on a daily basis.

The Transportation Infrastructure Office (GIT) announced that it is conducting studies on ticket pricing, the results of which will be announced closer to the launch date.

“The government is conducting relevant studies and preliminary works on the LRT ticket pricing. To formulate future policies, the government will carefully consider various factors including social and economic benefits, public affordability [and] system operating costs,” said the GIT in a statement emailed to the Times. “Relevant progress will be announced in due course.”

Early government projections claimed that the system could accommodate a maximum of 7,800 passengers per hour per direction across both lines.

However, as the Taipa Line took priority over the Macau Peninsula Line, the GIT said “the government will further study and assess the passenger flow for the project.”

The GIT refused to comment on whether project developers had forecasted an average number of commuters per hour. A GIT representative said the only passenger assessment conducted to date was of the system’s expected maximum capacity.

“At the very beginning of the LRT project development, the project consultant carried out relevant research on capacity of the LRT system. According to the assessment at that time, the LRT will operate 19 hours a day with the maximum capacity of 7,800 passengers per hour, per direction. Based on the assessment result, the government then carried out the procurement of rolling stock and systems and the construction works,” explained the GIT.

If the LRT operates as expected – for 19 hours a day, with a total capacity of up to 15,600 passengers per hour – the light rail infrastructure would be able to accommodate almost 300,000 passengers daily.

However, Macau’s small land mass and abundance of alternative transportation options means that the willingness of residents and non-resident workers to use the LRT will depend on ticket pricing, relative convenience and journey length, among other factors.

Peter Zabielskis, a scholar and urban development expert at the University of Macau, told the Times that “convenience will be the major factor” for residents, provided that tickets are not too expensive.

He rationalized that LRT stations near Cotai’s integrated resorts might attract customers among the territory’s many casino workers.

“I can’t speculate about the prices,” cautioned Zabielskis, “but MOP10-20 might be a bit too high and would act as a disincentive. People are very content with the low bus prices. They are also aware of the high government [budget] surplus and assume that it will be used for socio-economic improvement. I expect there will be resistance to high prices.”

Some residents told the Times that motorbikes and scooters will remain the preferred option for many locals, because of the flexibility they offer in terms of parking.

For the city’s low-wage workers, the MOP2 fare for a bus ride in town is likely to remain the most attractive option. Most journeys clock in at under 30 minutes, while the bus network offers multiple “nodes” that give travelers greater flexibility in choosing where to start and end their journeys.

On the other hand, tourists are typically less price-sensitive and, according to some academic studies, are more influenced by convenience when choosing their mode of transport.    

This is fortunate for those responsible for the LRT project, as the Taipa Line will connect the Taipa Ferry Terminal and the Macau International Airport to the Cotai area.

Seemingly built for tourists, the Taipa Line will encourage cross-boundary transportation for visitors from Guangdong Province, according to the GIT website. In its capacity “as a motivation [for] the region’s development potential” and promoting “the increase of people flow inside the city and among regions”, it remains to be seen whether the LRT system will attract more tourists through boasting improved connectivity.

Nevertheless, locals may be satisfied with the investment even if few of them plan to use the system. Zabielskis told the Times that transportation issues now top the list of residents’ most pressing concerns.

“As far as I know, the number one problem mentioned by people in Macau is transportation – even more than public housing. It’s a very important issue.”

“From the start, [the LRT] was geared toward moving casino customers around and was supported [by locals] because it would keep non-locals off the roads and reduce the number of shuttle buses causing congestion,” he said.

The LRT project has been in the works, at least in a conceptual sense, since 2002 when former chief executive Edmund Ho announced that the MSAR government would begin developing “a brand new mass transit system.”
The Macau segment of the line was more recently put on hold as construction authorities refocused their efforts on completing the Taipa Line, which is estimated to cost at least MOP11 billion.

Today, construction works can be seen across much of Taipa, with the skeleton infrastructure blending seamlessly with other large-scale projects in the area. The works have caused traffic diversions, road closures and congestion – much to the annoyance of some residents, who were gridlocked in a two-way, hours- long standstill at both ends of Amizade Bridge last year.

Local perspectives

Gabriela Lam, a 25-year-old retail worker residing in Taipa, told the Times that she would be interested in using the LRT to travel to and from the Macau peninsula if the service was competitively priced. She said she would be a “regular user” of the LRT if ticket fares were set at around MOP2-3, similar to buses in the MSAR. However, she would “use it only occasionally” if they were priced at MOP10 or above. Given the relative distances covered by Hong Kong’s MTR and Macau’s planned LRT, Lam said she would be surprised if the latter is more expensive for commuters.

Cheok Chin Seng, an 18-year-old student at the University of Macau, told the Times that he will use the LRT service once it is up and running. “Of course I will choose the LRT,” the Macau resident said, adding that he would be prepared to pay up to MOP10 for a single journey – but at that price, he will only take the LRT when he needs to arrive at his destination “urgently”. Otherwise, he expects to pay MOP5. “Macau is so small, I don’t think it will be very expensive,” he said.

Joana Leong, a 24-year-old professional in Macau, says she will not use the LRT for commuting given the short distance between her home and workplace. She told the Times that for general use, she would be prepared to pay around MOP5-10 for a single journey. “MOP15 is too much… In fact, MOP13 is too much!” said Leong. “I cannot foresee when I would need to pay MOP13 for a one-way trip […] it feels like too much.”

Simon Lam, 33, the co-owner of iAOHiN Gallery in Macau, said that the LRT project is “a step in the right direction” for Macau transportation and that he would happily fork out MOP10-20 for a ride, provided that “the service is frequent, runs at night and most importantly, runs where most people live [and] need to go.” Emphasizing the need for the LRT service to facilitate better transportation for people living and working in the city, Lam criticized the project’s current trajectory as “more [of] a shuttle for casino-goers than any real solution to [the] polluting transport chaos in Macau.” DB/JZ/LV

LRT fares likely to exceed bus prices

Ticket pricing will be a major factor in determining the light rail’s usage, sustainability and even profitability – especially as it will likely influence locals’ willingness to use the service.

However, the Transportation Infrastructure Office (GIT) admitted that little consideration has been given to ticket fares.

Local residents told the Times this week that LRT fares will be a major consideration in how frequently they use the service, but many were under the impression that tickets would cost less than MOP10. Others said that ticket prices should be similar to local bus fares.

At around MOP2-3 for a one-way ticket, a trip to town on the LRT would only cost as much as a bus fare. If ticket prices are similar to the cost of short journeys on Hong Kong’s MTR, commuters may be expected to pay around MOP10-15. Any more would place the fare closer to that of a brief journey by taxi or ride-hailing service.

The number of years needed to recover the MOP11 billion investment in financial terms (excluding socio-economic benefits) will depend not only on the price of tickets, but also the average volume of passengers daily. The GIT could not provide an estimate, reiterating in an email to the Times that the only available statistic is the maximum capacity of around 300,000 passengers per day.

Data is difficult to compile for occupancy rates of metro systems. According to the 2012 National Transit Database in the U.S., most major cities (excluding New York City, Boston and Phoenix) record an average occupancy rate of between 25 and 45 percent for light rail systems. This includes both peak and off-peak hours.

Meanwhile, a 2014 discussion in Hong Kong’s LegCo revealed that some of the city’s MTR lines recorded an average occupancy rate “at almost 70 percent for both morning and afternoon peak hours.”

The MTR network operates in a city that serves a resident population roughly 11 times larger than Macau’s, and a tourist population about twice as numerous. Ticket fares vary depending on journey distance, but are typically priced between HKD10 and HKD30.

For example, a short one-way ride from Central to Mong Kok – a route frequented by tourists, at a distance comparable to that of a typical journey on Macau’s LRT – would cost HKD13.5, or about HKD12 with an Octopus card.

The size of the customer base in Hong Kong allows for economies of scale, which reduce the revenue required for each individual trip in order to break even. Contrarily, a concessionaire operating the Macau LRT might have to charge more per individual ticket in order to offset the significant fixed costs of regular maintenance, repairs and staffing.