UN warns Macau has one of the alarmingly lowest fertility rates

Macau’s declining birth rate has become a significant demographic concern, reflecting broader trends across China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan.

As fertility rates in these regions hover around or even fall below 1.4 children per woman, experts are increasingly concerned about the long-term socio-economic effects.

Data from the United Nations suggests that in 2024, Macau, China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are part of a growing group of regions where fertility rates have dipped to alarmingly low levels. While the global fertility decline started in the 1990s, these regions have seen more drastic changes in recent years. China, for instance, has experienced a sharp drop in its fertility rate since the 1990s, reaching 1.01 births per woman by 2024.

Macau’s fertility rate stands at 0.68, one of the lowest globally, and Hong Kong is not far behind with 0.73 births per woman. Taiwan follows with 0.86.

Data from the World Population Prospects 2024 report reveals that fertility rates have drastically changed across the globe.

This trend is part of a broader phenomenon in Eastern and Southeast Asia, where fertility rates have continued to decline despite economic growth and modernization.

In some areas, fertility rates have dropped so low that they now face the potential of population decline, which could strain pension systems, healthcare, and overall economic productivity.

In 2023, Japan’s birth rate fell to a new low for the eighth straight year, which was described as critical, urging authorities to do everything they can to reverse the trend.

In the UN’s report, Japan ranked fifth with 1.22 births per woman, followed by Korea, Singapore and Thailand.

Currently, fertility levels are at or above 2.1 births per woman in 45% of countries and regions, which represent about a third of the global population.

However, over 10% of countries (13%) still maintain fertility levels of 4.0 or higher, with the majority of these nations located in sub-Saharan Africa.

Other countries such as Afghanistan, Sudan, and Yemen also fall into this category, with Nigeria being the largest nation with such high fertility rates.

In 1994, nearly 40% of countries had fertility rates of 4.0 or higher.

Today, one-third of these countries have seen their fertility rates drop below 2.1, while another third still report rates above 4.0, according to the report.

By 2054, no country is expected to have a fertility rate higher than 4.0, and fewer than 30% of countries will still report fertility rates above 2.1 births per woman.

Meanwhile, the delayed childbearing trend is also seen in the increasing average age at which women are having children.

While the average age of motherhood was under 25 in 1994, it has now surpassed 30 in many of the affected regions, including in China and Hong Kong.

Earlier this year, the Health Bureau (SSM) has projected that the city will see fewer than 3,500 births in 2025, the lowest number since 2004.

As of the beginning of the Chinese Year of the Snake, the bureau reported 284 newborns had been registered in the city’s hospitals by January 8, a drop of 17 from the same period in 2024.

The SSM expressed concern about the continuing decline in the birth rate, stating that reaching 3,500 births would be a “good” result.

According to projections, Macau’s fertility rate is expected to reach its lowest level in over 20 years by 2025, marking a significant decline from the 6,571 births recorded in 2013.

Official statistics show that Macau recorded 3,712 births in 2023, representing a sharp decline of 43.5% compared to a decade ago, and a notable decrease from the 7,913 births during the Lunar Year of the Dragon in 1988.

Lawmaker Wong Kit Cheng previously highlighted that the Year of the Dragon, which was expected to boost the birth rate, did not significantly influence residents’ willingness to have children.

In response to the matter, the lawmaker suggested that Macau should learn from mainland China’s recent policies, which aim to accelerate the improvement of the childbirth support system and promote a more family-friendly social environment.

Specifically, the concept of “cost-sharing” in terms of implementing various maternity leave arrangements could help support enterprises in adopting more family-friendly measures, an approach that Macau could potentially adopt.

Last year, amid the government’s push for a higher birth rate, a birth encouragement video released by the Social Welfare Bureau (IAS) faced public backlash, as many residents criticized the government’s messaging and its perceived lack of understanding of the challenges faced by families.

The one-minute clip depicts a smiling baby and toddler to encourage married couples to have children.

Critics argued the clip’s simplistic messaging overlooked key struggles like insufficient parental leave allowances, costly childcare and education, skyrocketing housing prices, and lengthy work hours that dominate residents’ lives.

In overlooking these real concerns, critics argue the video provides an unrealistic portrayal of family life that does not reflect the complex considerations faced by parents.