Consumer confidence index | Residents do not trust the housing market

The Macau Consumer Confidence Index (MCCI) stood at 86.35 in the first quarter of 2017, an increase of 3.26 percent from the fourth quarter of 2016.

The result implied a slight increase in Macau consumers’ confidence towards six areas: “local economy,” “employment,” “consumer prices,” “living standards,” “housing purchase” and “stock investment.”

Individual index scores below 100 suggest a lack of confidence, while scores over 100 imply a positive outlook on the economy.

The survey, which was conducted by the Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST), reported that during the first quarter of this year, five of the six sub-indexes included in the study increased and one decreased.

The “local economy” sub-index was 101.41, up by 1.87 percent compared against the fourth quarter of 2016. This change shows a slight decrease in consumers’ pessimism toward the overall performance of Macau’s economy.

The “employment” sub-index increased substantially to 106.74, an increase of 6.45 percent, representing the highest score among the six sub-indexes in the first quarter.

The “consumer prices” sub-index was 74.28, up 2.8 percent compared with the previous survey – a change that implies that consumers are less concerned about how inflation will affect their lives in the near future.

The “living standards” sub-index was 97.40, only slightly up by 0.17 percent.

The “housing purchase” sub- index was still the lowest, which stood at 53.37, down by 2.76 percent. This decrease continued the downward trend of the previous quarter, suggesting a worsening of the already-negative outlook among potential homebuyers.

The “Stock investment” sub-index was 84.4, representing a substantial increase of 9.51 percent. This change reflects an increase in the willingness of local consumers to invest in the market.

Chan Lai Kow (center)

During a press conference yesterday, Chan Lai Kow, director of MUST’s Sustainable Development Department noted that the latest MCCI surveys in conjunction with the previous 33 surveys had all consecutively shown that consumer confidence increased substantially with education levels.

In particular, the 34-quarter average MCCI for consumers with tertiary education was 4.59 points (5.4 percent) and 9.97 points (12.6 percent) higher than those for consumers with only secondary and primary education respectively.

Additionally, the MCCI for consumers with only primary education tended to be more volatile across different quarters and years.

Kow suggested that focusing more on education and training for Macau citizens as well as supporting citizens’ continuous learning and self-enhancement could be of fundamental importance for increasing Macau consumers’ confidence.

Consumer confidence is related to consumer characteristics, and patterns have changed somewhat based on the latest cross-
analysis.

In terms of education levels, the highest confidence was in “local economy” and the lowest confidence was in “housing purchase” for all groups of people.

For personal income, the highest confidence was in “employment” for all groups of people; except those with monthly income between MOP5,000 and MOP10,000, who were most confident in “local economy”.