Disappointing October accounts for the fifth consecutive month in the ‘red’

Gross gaming revenue (GGR) from local casinos fell sharply in October, continuing the decline since June and marking the fifth straight month of year-over-year declines.

Last month’s result (MOP21.68 billion) was 10% lower than the same month last year, when GGR reached MOP24.09 billion.

Usually fueled by high visitation during the National Day Golden Week, October has historically been one of the strongest months for casino revenue.

Compared with September, October still shows a 20% increase, but it adds to the poor second-half results of 2026, bringing those results closer to the government’s projection, which, at the time of the forecast around a year ago, seemed hard to believe.

With October’s result, the accumulated GGR after 10 months is now MOP208.8 billion, just 1.6% above last year’s level at this time.

After June, which posted the year’s largest drop so far (-12.1%), October now follows with a 10% decline, adding to the year’s low results, including July’s (-8.4%).

At the time, the poorer results in June and July were said to be expected and to result from the perceived impacts of the FIFA World Cup that took place over those months; October’s result cannot be justified in the same way.

The monthly GGR average is now MOP20.88 billion. If the same trend from last year repeats in November and December, it could result in a final GGR for the whole year of 2026 of around MOP245-245.5 billion, lower than in 2025, when it topped MOP247.4 billion.

Still, the expected final result is, for now, well above the MOP236 billion initially forecast by the government.

As the Times reported, Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said early last month that October GGR performance was likely to be crucial to whether this year’s GGR would meet the government’s 2026 prediction of MOP236 billion, noting that he did not expect to revise that forecast.

With the current accumulated MOP208.8 billion, it would need a tragic result in Nov. and Dec. to jeopardize reaching that target.

Still, some market analysts have cautiously addressed October and year-to-date results. In mid-month, China International Capital Corporation Hong Kong Securities Ltd (CICC) noted that there was “no clear near-term inflection point,” suggesting that GGR could continue trending downward beyond October.