Gaming | Analysts say new Fitch forecast ‘optimistic’

Fitch Ratings forecasts that Macau’s gross gaming revenues (GGR) in 2021 will be nearly 65% below 2019 levels, recovering to 35% below 2019 by 2022, and fully recovering in 2024.
So far, between January and August this year, Macau has generated a total of MOP61.9 billion in GGR, only about 21% of 2019 levels.
To analysts in the city, the prediction seems optimistic.
Speaking to the Times, economist Albano Martins noted that if such revenues were generated, it would mean that the GGR this year would be around 102.4 billion – still about MOP28 billion less than the government’s estimated revenues for this year.
“It is possible if we have around MOP10.1 billion per month from September to December. […] That is more possible than the Macau government’s estimate,” Martins said.
“My forecast is that the GGR will reach only MOP93.816 billion this year, which is 21.2% of 2019,” he added.
Gaming results saw a sharp downturn in August, recording the lowest GGR this year due to the Delta cases discovered earlier that month.
GGR only totaled MOP6.54 billion, down 37.4% from the period’s peak of MOP10.45 billion in the preceding month
Ben Lee, managing partner of IGamiX Management & Consulting, commented that the prediction seems hopeful, citing the effects of Delta variant in the city’s travel restrictions.
“We now have the delta variant causing havoc with countries that were previously considered to have Covid under manageable control. Macau has a zero Covid strategy so it’s hard to see it opening up any time soon and our government has said so quite clearly,” said the expert.
On top of that, Lee recalled that “there is this new wind blowing from the north against video gaming, unwholesome entertainment celebrities [and] private gathering of data.
“You have to wonder if gambling is on that target list as well,” he said.
Deutsche Bank has also recently lowered its estimate of GGR in the city in 2021, following August’s steep downturn in revenue.
The investment banking company has revised its forecasts to MOP97 billion for the whole year.
For Lee, optimistic predictions have fallen by the wayside over the past 18 months.

Gov’t to adjust 2021 GGR forecast

Lei Wai Nong, Secretary for Economy and Finance, admitted that the gaming revenues this year will be adjusted, though no figures can yet be given.
Initially, the government predicted MOP130 billion in revenue for 2021, hoping for a recovery following the downturn last year,
Meanwhile, the official also said that the consumption subsidy has expanded the use of mobile payment methods.
As of September 7, MOP3.7 billion in spending, or 62% of the total budget, has been recorded in the consumption subsidy scheme. With privileges offered by banks included, the amount increases to MOP4.64 billion.