Investment banks cut August gaming revenue forecasts

Investment banks have lowered their forecasts for August gross gaming revenue (GGR), citing softer daily gaming revenue in the latest week, although industry analysts expect a series of concerts and other events to provide support to the market.

According to a Citigroup research report, Macau’s GGR for the first 23 days of August reached approximately MOP16.65 billion.

Average daily gaming revenue during Aug. 17-23 was about MOP714 million, slightly below the MOP721 million recorded in the previous week and broadly unchanged from the MOP715 million daily average recorded during the same period last year.

Citigroup estimated that VIP betting volume increased about 9% to 13% month over month during the period, while mass-market gross gaming revenue rose approximately 9% to 11%. The VIP hold rate was also slightly higher than in the previous week.

Earlier this week, Citigroup’s latest monthly table survey showed that the premium-mass casino market had regained momentum this month, as fewer high-end players wagered substantially more per person.

Total premium-mass wagering observed rose 7% from a year earlier to HKD14.3 million, or about USD1.8 million, although the number of players surveyed fell 16% to 525. As a result, the average wager per player climbed 27% to HKD27,284, from HKD21,543 in August 2025.

The bank expects upcoming concerts at Galaxy Arena, The Londoner Arena and The Venetian Arena to provide additional support for gaming revenue in the remainder of the month.

However, Citigroup adopted a more conservative outlook, cutting its August GGR forecast from MOP23 billion to MOP22.5 billion, representing approximately 2% year-over-year growth. The revised forecast implies an average daily GGR of about MOP726 million for the remaining days of August.

Meanwhile, HSBC Research also estimated that GGR reached MOP16.65 billion in the first 23 days of August, with average daily revenue of approximately MOP724 million. The figure represents an 11% month-over-month increase but a 2% year-over-year decline.

HSBC noted that the decline in VIP betting volume last week offset the impact of a modest increase in the VIP hold rate.

The bank expects full-month August GGR to range between MOP22.1 billion and MOP22.6 billion if average daily revenue for the remainder of the month stays between MOP680 million and MOP740 million. This would translate into year-over-year growth ranging from flat to 2%.

Looking ahead, HSBC expects GGR to decline about 10% month over month in September due to seasonal trends, putting third-quarter GGR growth at between a 1% decline and a 1% increase year over year.