Kapok | There can be only one

Eric Sautedé

Elections are in the air — it has become palpable.

Just a few days ago, Judge Song Man Lei was for the second time appointed as the president of the electoral affairs committee for the election of the Chief Executive (CE). She is joined by Victor Chi Ping Chan, the Director of the Macau SAR Government Information Bureau and the government spokesperson, who is himself sitting for the fourth time on the committee. Gone is José Chu, the former director of the Administration and Public Administration Services who retired in 2014, but in is his successor Kou Peng Kuan as well as Assistant Prosecutor-General of the Public Prosecution Office Chan Tsz King and Court of Second Instance Judge Tong Hio Fong.

Elections are about law, due administrative processes, order and timely communication in Macao, and clearly about continuity as well.

During the taking of her oath, judge Song Man Lei pledged that the election of the CE would be “open, fair and honest,” and refused to make any assumption regarding a candidate in particular. Even though the exact date of the election is not yet decided, we now know that the 400-member strong electoral college that will ultimately select the new CE will itself be “elected” — for 344 of them — on June 16.

Votes are cast, but in effect the end result is highly predictable as this college is made of seven very stable functional constituencies representatives to which are added six religious figures (whose stability depends on unearthly powers), 22 of our legislators (not all of them, why would that be?), the 12 representatives of Macao to the National People’s Congress and the 16 representatives of the SAR to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.

A quick check at the college members back in 2009 and 2014 indicates pretty identical lists of people — I would say at least 80% alike. Then, the college is vastly dominated by businessmen, and not only in the first constituency made of 120 heavyweights from the industrial, commercial and financial sector. Obviously, people whose idea of competition is quite narrowly defined too: in this first constituency, everybody was elected in 2014 with support varying between 74.11% and 89.55% of the mere 689 valid votes.

And then, ultimately, who will they (s)elect?

In 2004, 2009 and 2014, there was only one contestant for the position — quite a heavy machinery for a non-competitive election with a process extending over more than six months! Why would the 2019 edition be any different?

Yet, the talk of the town is again of two candidates. In a recent article discussing the latest decline in casino revenues, an international news agency noted that “the two likely contenders are Ho Iat Seng, president of Macao’s Legislative Assembly, and Lionel Leong, the secretary for economy and finance, which oversees the gaming industry.” Why two and not three or four, coming from security or culture?

Scarcity might have to do with the risk of being a contender: the former Secretary for Transport and Public Works — in jail for 29 years on corruption charges — was once dubbed “Mr 10%” for the score he could potentially commend in such an election. And then the most serious challenger to the sitting CE back in 2009 was Prosecutor General Ho Chio Meng — once viewed as Mr Clean — who was later convicted of hundreds counts of diverse forms of corruption and traffic of influence and then thrown in prison for 21 years.

Now, Mr Ho has openly declared that he is “prudently considering” being a candidate. Mr Ho is from an old Macao family — his father started their business empire and his sister, Ho Teng Iat is also in politics. He is the president of the Legislative Assembly. He has been a member of the National People’s Congress since 1998 and is today the only one among the 12 representatives from Macao to the standing committee of that Congress. Moreover, Mr Ho is also one of the vice-presidents of the Macao Chinese Chamber of Commerce — the true king-maker institution of the SAR. So, let’s not kid ourselves: there can be only one.