Nation’s growth buoying regional, global economy

Michael Finkelstein, CEO of Kinetk, a US data analytics company and a participant in the Boao Forum [Photo: Zhang Wei/China Daily]

China’s steady growth prospects, underpinned by its policy predictability, strong innovation momentum and vast domestic market, are injecting certainty into both the regional and the global economy amid geopolitical headwinds and energy-related crises, experts said.

Speaking at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference 2026, Justin Yifu Lin, former chief economist at the World Bank, said that despite difficulties caused by de-globalization waves and geopolitical tensions, China is well-positioned to achieve its 2026 GDP target of 4.5 to 5 percent, which would contribute about 30 percent to global growth.

“Growth could even exceed 5 percent (this year) with better policy execution, provided there are no major unforeseen shocks in the international environment,” said Lin, who is also dean of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University.

Drivers of growth would include China’s strengths in emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, supported by a vast talent pool, a large domestic market with diverse application scenarios, and the effective combination of market forces and government support, he added.

Zheng Yongnian, dean of the School of Public Policy at Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, said that China’s stabilizing role in the global economy is also reflected in the policy certainty provided by its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) amid rising geopolitical uncertainties.

With the plan reiterating China’s goal of achieving “mid-level developed country” status by 2035, the country is on track for pursuing annual growth of around 4.5 to 5 percent until 2035, providing a predictable engine for global growth over the next decade, Zheng said.

Michele Geraci, an Italian economist and a former senior official with the Italian government, said the 15th Five-Year Plan has defined priority sectors for development, which provides clear, stable guidance to foreign companies investing in China.

While China seeks relative independence in sectors such as energy, food and technology, this does not imply isolation, Geraci said, emphasizing that the country remains committed to open trade, creating continued opportunities for cooperation with foreign businesses.

A flagship report released by the Boao Forum for Asia noted that China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations continue to serve as key anchors of regional stability. It said that China plays a central role in Asia’s value chains, with ASEAN economies, Japan and South Korea each maintaining over 20 percent dependence on China.

Meanwhile, ASEAN’s intra-regional dependence in terms of value chain has remained stable at around 70 percent, with its reliance on China increasing while that on Japan and South Korea is declining, the report said, adding that China and ASEAN economies are seen as the most attractive investment destinations in Asia.

Lin, from Peking University, said that China’s technological upgrading will inevitably create competition with advanced economies in higher-value industries, and he advised developed economies to respond by moving up the value chain.

Jiang Xiaojuan, former deputy secretary-general of the State Council, said that during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, China’s industrial division of labor with advanced economies will comprehensively shift from a complementary pattern to a more horizontal one, in which both sides compete at similar levels of technology and product quality. ZHOU LANXU & LI JIAYING, Boao, MDT/China Daily