Jean-Pierre Cabesta
China has the means to convince many countries, particularly its neighbors, to establish asymmetrical win-win partnerships with itself – referred to as a “good neighbor policy,” according to Jean-Pierre Cabestan, head of the Department of Government and International Studies at Hong Kong Baptist University.
Speaking on the sidelines of the France Macau Business Association monthly breakfast meeting last week, the scholar reiterated that China’s assertive foreign and security policy was initially a response to the global decline in the financial power of the U.S. in 2008. This policy assertiveness has since expanded its influence to neighboring regions as well.
Major foreign policy trends under Chinese President Xi Jinping have included an increase in the country’s international assertiveness, namely taking more risks and showing more initiative when it comes to global affairs. Cabestan pointed out that in order to understand this policy one must not forget the China Dream and the vision of overtaking the United States as the world’s major economic and diplomatic superpower.
The professor of international studies stated his belief that Xi’s foreign policy could succeed due to the increasing dependence of many countries on China.
President Xi Jinping
Cabestan added that since Xi came into power, “China-USA strategic polarization has become stronger, increasing risks of friction.”
However, when questioned on how China’s policy assertiveness could affect Macau, he said the “risk is pretty low.”
“Macau is […] not bringing trouble to China; [it’s] very different from Hong Kong,” Cabestan told the Times. “What I think the Central Government is worried about is whether Hong Kong localists and new political movements in Hong Kong would […] have an impact on Macau. I think that’s a major concern but I don’t see it,” he continued.
Earlier this month, thousands of Hong Kong residents took the streets to protest against the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s decision to disqualify anyone from office who fails to make a sincere and solemn oath. The demonstrators demanded that China’s top legislative panel stop interfering with the SAR’s pro-independence advocates.
In Cabestan’s opinion, the political cultures of the MSAR and Hong Kong are dissimilar, as the HKSAR has an old tradition of questioning power. He noted that it is easier for China to “buy [Macau] people and their support.”
“I would say [China was able to] buy their lack of involvement in politics,” he said.
The scholar reiterated that Hong Kong would fail to obtain “full democracy” as long as China has a “one-power policy system.”
Meanwhile, what is influencing Macau should be China’s international activism along the example of the Marshall Plan, which is the “One Belt, One Road (OBOR)” initiative, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the internationalization of Chinese society.
According to Cabestan, it is in the interests of China, along with the anti-corruption campaign, to “keep Macau prosperous and happy.”
Thus, the East Asian country will likely continue to allow masses of tourists to enter the MSAR. Cabestan also noted that China is keen on further involving Macau in the OBOR.
The scholar argued that China is benefiting from the current democracy crisis, as democratic governments across the globe undergo periods of uncertainty and hardship.
“[Globally] they want more freedom, they want to have good [and] competent leaders,” he explained.
With the growing disparities and inequalities in democratic societies worldwide, particularly regarding issues around the migrant crisis, the university department head noted that such issues have not been well addressed by global leaders.
“How can [they] accept one or two million migrants when they have an 11 percent unemployment rate. Who’s going to buy that?” he said, adding, “We need more responsible and pragmatic leaders.”
Cabestan considers that Xi’s foreign and security policy assertiveness has been successful – so far.
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